首页|气候变化背景下黑龙江省东南部水稻增产潜力评估分析

气候变化背景下黑龙江省东南部水稻增产潜力评估分析

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研究旨在评估黑龙江省东南部水稻气候生产潜力，并分析其增产空间，以便为该地区合理有效利用气候资源、提高水稻生产力提供科学依据。通过收集发育期观测数据，确定了水稻播种、移栽及成熟的临界温度指标，并采用联合国粮食和农业组织(FAO)推荐的逐步订正法计算了水稻的气候生产潜力。进而还分析了多年气候变化对水稻生产潜力的影响。研究结果显示，播种期、出苗期和成熟期的临界温度分别为5℃、12。5℃、10℃。在五常、宾县、宁安地区，无论是从播种到成熟期间，还是从移栽到成熟期间，水稻的气候生产潜力均呈现出增长趋势。特别是在气候变暖的情况下，宁安地区的水稻生产受到了积极影响。通过对1961-2020年的数据进行分析，发现黑龙江省东南部从播种到成熟期的水稻单产增产潜力呈现先下降后升高的趋势，该地区的水稻实际生产力逐渐提高，即实际单产有所增加。然而，与其气候生产潜力相比，仍存在较大的差距，表明该地区水稻的增产空间仍然巨大。本研究的结果不仅为水稻生产的合理布局提供了科学依据，还为充分有效利用气候资源提供了指导。
Analysis of Rice Yield Increase Potential in Southeast Heilongjiang Province Under the Background of Climate Change
The purpose of this study is to calculate the climate production potential of rice in southeast Heilongjiang Province,and to analyze its yield increase potential,so as to provide scientific basis for rational and effective utilization of climatic resources and improvement of rice productivity.Based on the observed data during the growing period,the critical temperature indexes for sowing,transplanting and ripening of rice were calculated.The climate potential of rice was calculated by using the stepwise correction method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),and then the space for increasing yield was calculated and its multi-year change was analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows.The critical temperatures of sowing,transplanting and ripening were 5℃,12.5℃ and 10℃.In Wuchang,Binxian and Ning'an,the climatic potential production of rice increased from sowing to ripening and transplanting to ripening.The climatic potential production of rice increased in most areas,and climate warming was beneficial to rice production.From 1961 to 2020,the potential of yield per unit area in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province showed the trend of first decline and then rise from sowing to ripening,and 2009 was the turning point of decline to rise,and the trend of increasing yield per unit area from transplanting to ripening also showed the trend of first decline and then rise,and 2008 was the turning point of decline to rise.In the recent 60 years,with climate warming,the actual productivity of rice in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province has gradually increased,that is,the actual yield per unit area of rice has gradually increased,but there is still a big gap with its climate production potential,and there is still a huge space for rice production.The results can provide scientific basis for rational distribution of rice production and full and effective utilization of climate resources.

riceclimate changeclimatic potential productivityyield improving potentialcritical temperatureindex

王萍、周宝才、韩俊杰、徐永清、纪仰慧、李秀芬、姜丽霞、那荣波

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黑龙江省气象科学研究所,哈尔滨 150030

黑龙江省气候中心,哈尔滨 150030

水稻 气候变化 气候生产潜力 增产潜力 临界温度 指标

国家重点研发计划黑龙江省气象局科技创新发展项目中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金黑龙江省自然科学基金

2022YFD2300201HQGG20220042022SYIAEKFZD04-02LH2022D024

2024

中国农学通报
中国农学会

中国农学通报

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.891
ISSN：1000-6850
年,卷(期)：2024.40(17)
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