提高作物水分生产力(Crop Water Productivity，CWP)是减少农业用水、实现可持续发展的重要途径，掌握CWP的时空特征则是通过管理生产和耗水提高CWP的重要前提。本文综合作物遥感蒸散数据和农业生产数据，分析了鲁西平原冬小麦CWP的时空格局，并利用因素分解方法探讨了单产和蒸散对CWP变化的直接贡献。结果表明:2002年以来，鲁西平原冬小麦单产显著提高(P＜0。05)，推动冬小麦总产稳步提升，但2010年以后，单产贡献量逐渐减弱。2010年以后，种植面积具有正向效应(种植面积增加、总产增加，或种植面积减少、总产减少)的县域数目呈减少趋势。2006年以后，鲁西平原冬小麦CWP显著增加(P＜0。05)，2016年达到1。64 kg/m3。空间分布特征表明，德州和济宁是CWP较高的"热点"地区。冬小麦CWP的变化直接受单产和蒸散的影响，2010年以后，单产具有正向效应(单产增加、CWP增加，或单产减少、CWP减少)的县域数量减少，蒸散具有正向效应(蒸散增加、CWP减少，或蒸散减少、CWP增加)的县域数目维持在较高水平，蒸散在CWP变化中起着越来越重要的作用。在单产增长趋于平缓的现状下，通过管理蒸散成为提升鲁西平原冬小麦CWP的重要途径，但也需要进一步挖掘单产的提升潜力。本研究可为鲁西平原冬小麦生产和耗水管理决策提供参考。
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Winter Wheat Water Productivity and Its Decomposition in Western Shandong Plain
Improving crop water productivity(CWP)is an important way to reduce agricultural water use and achieve sustainable development,and mastering the temporal and spatial characteristics of CWP is an important premise to improve CWP by managing production and water consumption.Based on remote sensing evapotranspiration(ET)and agricultural production data,the temporal and spatial patterns of CWP of winter wheat in western Shandong Plain were analyzed,and the contribution of ET and average yield to CWP's variation was discussed by index decomposition analysis.The results showed that since 2002,the average yield of winter wheat increased significantly(P＜0.05)in western Shandong Plain,which promoted the steady increase of the total yield of winter wheat.But after 2010,the contribution of average yield decreased gradually.After 2010,the number of counties with positive effect of planting area(planting area increasing and total yield increasing,or planting area decreasing and total yield decreasing)showed a decreasing trend.After 2006,winter wheat CWP increased significantly(P＜0.05)in western Shandong Plain,reaching 1.64 kg/m3 in 2016.The spatial distribution of CWP showed that Dezhou and Jining were the"hot spots"with high CWP.Variation of winter wheat CWP was directly affected by average yield and ET.After 2010,the number of counties with positive effect of average yield(average yield increasing and CWP increasing,or average yield decreasing and CWP decreasing)decreased,and the number of counties with positive effect of ET(ET increasing and CWP decreasing,or ET decreasing and CWP increasing)remained at a high level.It showed that ET played a more important role in the changing of CWP.Under the current situation of flat yield growth,managing ET had become an important way to improve winter wheat CWP in western Shandong Plain,and it was also necessary to further explore the potential of increasing average yield.This study could provide reference for making decision of winter wheat production and water consumption management in western Shandong Plain.
water productivityspatiotemporal patterndriving factorsfactor decompositionwinter wheat
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
