十堰烟区近30年烤烟大田生长期气候因子变化特征分析

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中文摘要：针对气候因子概率分布、周期变换规律对烟叶大田期不同生育阶段均存在不同差异性的现状，利用湖北省十堰烟区7个国家气象站1991-2020年4-9月气候统计资料，首先采用最小二乘法研究烟叶不同生育阶段气候因子年际变化趋势;其次采用核密度估计函数，研究不同生育阶段气候因子概率分布特征;最后采用小波变换算法，研究多时间尺度周期变换差异性。结果表明:烟叶不同生育阶段气候因子均存在一定年代差异性，气温条件较为稳定;日照时数在旺长期均呈递减趋势，其他生育期日照变化较为平稳;降水量方面各生育期存在较大差异;烟叶不同生育阶段气温、降水量概率分布存在较大差异，日照时数概率分布较为集中;不同生育阶段气候因子均存在多时间尺度周期变换规律，烟叶成熟期存在长时间尺度第一主周期变换，对气候因子敏感程度远高于其余阶段。研究结果为优化烟叶种植布局和提高种植效益提供了科学依据。

外文标题：Characteristics Analysis of Climate Factors Changes During Growth Period of Flue-cured Tobacco in Shiyan Tobacco Growing Area over Past 30 Years

外文摘要：According to the current situation that the probability distribution and periodic-change law of climate factors have different differences in different growth stages of tobacco leaves in field stage,the least square method was used to study the interannual trend of climate factors in different growth stages of tobacco leaves from April to September in 2020,based on the climatic statistical data of 7 national meteorological stations in Shiyan tobacco-growing area of Hubei Province.Secondly,the kernel density estimation function was used to study the probability distribution characteristics of climate factors at different growth stages.Finally,wavelet transform algorithm was used to study the difference of multi-time scale periodic transformation.The results showed that the climatic factors in different growth stages of tobacco had certain age differences,and the temperature conditions were relatively stable.The sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend in prosperous period,and the sunshine duration in other growth period was stable.There were great differences in precipitation in different growth stages.The probability distribution of temperature and precipitation in different growth stages of tobacco leaves was different,and the probability distribution of sunshine hours was concentrated.There were multi-time scale periodic changes in climate factors at different growth stages,and there was a long time scale first main cycle change in tobacco ripening stage,which was much more sensitive to climate factors than the other stages.The research findings provide a more scientific guidance for tobacco cultivation,optimizing the layout and enhancing the quality and efficiency of tobacco production.

外文关键词：

flue-cured tobaccotobacco growth stagesleast squareskernel density estimationwavelet transformclimateclimatic factorsprobability distributioncyclical variations

作者：

任恒、曾繁蕊、杜世晔、陈子凡、沈雨、严一霖

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作者单位：

十堰市气象局,湖北十堰 442000

湖北省烟叶气象服务中心,湖北十堰 442000

关键词：

烤烟烟叶生育阶段最小二乘核密度估计小波变换气候气候因子概率分布周期变换

基金：

中国烟草总公司湖北省公司科技项目&&湖北省气象局科技发展基金&&十堰市气象局横向课题

项目编号：

027Y2021-020027Y2021-0212021Q142022Y112022001

出版年：

2024

中国农学通报

中国农学会

中国农学通报

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.891

ISSN：1000-6850

年,卷(期)：2024.40(24)