首页|淡水鱼越冬综合症发病气象指数评估方法研究

淡水鱼越冬综合症发病气象指数评估方法研究

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为科学预防淡水鱼越冬综合症,降低病害暴发风险,本研究在近年发病情况调查和资料搜集的基础上,深度分析了越冬综合症病害发生的气象背景差异,并建立了淡水鱼越冬综合症发病气象评估方法.通过统计分析关键气象要素,如稳定通过12℃初日、降温过程前期温度、降温过程发生时间、降温幅度和伴随降水量、雨日等,确定了影响鱼类越冬综合症的气象因子.研究发现,除降温和降水外,降温前气象条件也是影响鱼病发生程度的重要因素.基于此,构建了基于风险陷阱理论的升温陷阱指数和综合考虑雨量雨日的降水指数,并开发了鱼类越冬综合症的综合气象指数.结果表明,该综合气象指数能准确反映病害的发生时间和程度,与实际发病情况高度一致.此外,研究还确定了不同病害等级的累计综合气象指数阈值.这一评估方法为淡水鱼越冬综合症的气象监测和预报提供了科学依据.
Study on Evaluation Method of Meteorological Index for Overwintering Syndrome of Freshwater Fish
In order to scientifically prevent the overwintering syndrome of freshwater fish and reduce the risk of disease outbreaks,this study,based on recent surveys of disease occurrence and data collection,deeply analyzed the meteorological background differences in the occurrence of overwintering syndrome diseases and established a meteorological assessment method for the onset of freshwater fish wintering syndrome.By statistically analyzing key meteorological elements,such as the first day when the temperature stably passes 12℃,the temperature before the cooling process,the time of cooling process occurrence,the cooling amplitude and accompanying precipitation amount,rainy days,etc.,we identified the meteorological factors affecting fish overwintering syndrome.The study found that in addition to cooling and precipitation,the meteorological conditions before cooling were also important factors affecting the degree of fish disease occurrence.Based on this,we constructed a warming trap index based on risk trap theory and a precipitation index that comprehensively considers rainfall and rainy days,and developed a comprehensive meteorological index for fish overwintering syndrome.The results show that this comprehensive meteorological index can accurately reflect the timing and degree of disease occurrence,which is highly consistent with the actual disease situation.In addition,the study also determined the cumulative comprehensive meteorological index thresholds for different disease grades.This assessment method provides a scientific basis for meteorological monitoring and forecasting of freshwater fish overwintering syndrome.

freshwater fishoverwintering syndromeevaluation methodmeteorological influencing factorsmeteorological indexmeteorological assessment methodrisk trap theorywarming trap indexprecipitation indexcomprehensive meteorological index

邓爱娟、刘可群、刘志雄、刘凯文、韩育章、叶佩

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武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074

湖北省水产科学研究所,武汉 430077

湖北省荆州农业气象试验站,湖北荆州 434025

淡水鱼 越冬综合症 评估方法 气象影响因子 气象指数 气象评估方法 风险陷阱理论 升温陷阱指数 降水指数 综合气象指数

湖北省气象局科技基金项目武汉市气象科技联合项目

2022Z032023020201010577

2024

中国农学通报
中国农学会

中国农学通报

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.891
ISSN：1000-6850
年,卷(期)：2024.40(30)