Variation Characteristics and Disaster Risk Analysis of Strong Wind in Ripening Period of Actinidia Arguta:A Case Study of Dandong Area
In order to fully understand the impact of strong wind disaster on the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta,the meteorological data of the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta at four stations in Dandong from 1991 to 2020 were used,and the maximum wind speed≥12.0 m/s was used as the index of strong wind disaster.Considering the frequency,intensity and duration,the risk levels of mild,moderate and severe strong wind disaster were formulated.The variation law of strong wind disaster of Actinidia arguta was analyzed by the number of disasters and the ratio of stations,and the risk probability of strong wind disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory.The results showed that the maximum wind speed during the ripening period of Actinidia arguta in Dandong area showed a downward trend in the past 30 years,and the number of days of strong wind process showed a decreasing trend.Among them,the decrease in Zhen'an area was the smallest,and the number of years and days of strong wind was the most,which was more prone to strong wind disaster risk.The time variation characteristics of the occurrence times of different grades of strong wind disasters in the mature period of Actinidia arguta in Dandong area during 30 years were obvious.The occurrence times of three grades of strong wind disasters were mild>moderate>severe,and the occurrence probability was consistent with them,which were 66.5%,13.4%and 10.0%,respectively.The corresponding historical recurrence periods were more than 2 years,10 years and 10 years.At the same time,the high risk probability areas corresponding to the three grades of strong wind disasters were Fengcheng(mild),Zhen'an(moderate)and Donggang(severe).The probability of gale disaster in each region from high to low was Zhen'an,Fengcheng,Donggang and Kuandian,and their exceeding probabilities were 95.0%,89.9%,86.6%and 33.4%,respectively.The gale disaster was in the range of one to three years.The research results obtained the risk probability and return period law of different gale disasters at each site,which provided a reference for scientific response to the gale disaster in the mature period of Actinidia arguta.
Actinidia argutamaturity periodwind disasterinformation diffusionrisk probability
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
