首页|1990年以来我国县域人口的变动趋势与发展挑战

1990年以来我国县域人口的变动趋势与发展挑战

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县域是推进城乡融合发展的基本单元,在乡村振兴、新型城镇化、国家治理现代化等重要进程中占有独特地位.县域人口变动事关县域的发展及其重要载体作用的发挥.本文以1990 年以来历次全国人口普查数据为基础,从规模、结构、质量等多个维度考察了我国县域人口现状及较长时期内的变动趋势,并分析了不同区域间的发展差异.20 世纪90 代以来我国县域常住人口持续减少,人口净流出规模不断扩大,劳动力人口出现缩减,人口老龄化程度持续加深,各区域间县域人口发展分化加剧,面临诸多挑战.与此同时,人口城镇化水平大幅提高、高等教育人才比重增加及区域间人口发展差异缩小也为县域人口高质量发展带来了机遇.应利用好县域人口城镇化和教育提升优势,提升县域整合功能,密切关注县域人口外流、结构老化和少数民族人口变动等问题,做好应对准备.
Trends in Population Change and Development Challenges in China's Counties Since 1990
Counties are the fundamental unit for promoting integrated urban-rural development and play a crucial role in important processes such as rural revitalization,new urbanization,and the modernization of state governance.Population changes in counties have a significant impact on the future development of counties and their role as important carriers.This paper examines the current situation of county popula-tion in China and the trend of its change in a longer period of time in terms of scale,structure,quality and other dimensions,based on the national census data since 1990.The analysis also includes the devel-opmental differences among different regions.The study reveals that since the 1990s,the resident popula-tion of China's counties has been continuously decreasing.The scale of net population outflow has been expanding,resulting in a shrinking labor force and an increasing degree of population aging.Demographic development of counties has intensified among regions,posing many challenges.Simultaneously,the rise in urbanization levels,the increase in the proportion of highly educated individuals,and the reduction of regional disparities in population development have presented opportunities for the high-quality develop-ment of county populations.To enhance the integration function of counties,it is important to utilize the urbanization of the county population and the improvement of education.Additionally,attention should be paid to the outflow of population from the counties,the ageing of the population structure,and changes in the ethnic minority population.It is crucial to be prepared to deal with these issues.

County populationNegative population growthPopulation urbanizationRegional differ-ences

盛丹阳、段成荣、吕利丹、毕忠鹏、闵欣伟

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北京教育科学研究院教育发展研究中心

中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心

中共湖南省委党校青年与社会建设教研部

中国人民大学社会与人口学院

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县域人口 人口负增长 人口城镇化 区域差异

国家社会科学基金重大项目

20&ZD172

2024

中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)
中国农业大学

中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.208
ISSN:1009-508X
年,卷(期):2024.41(2)
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