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产业集聚的"本地—邻地"畜牧业碳排放治理效应:阻力还是助力

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为探究产业集聚对我国畜牧业碳排放的影响机理,基于2007-2021年中国31省(市、自治区)的面板数据(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区,下同),利用碳排放因子测算中国畜牧业碳排放现状,并运用空间计量模型讨论产业集聚对畜牧业碳排放的本地效应和空间溢出效应。结果表明:1)考察期内全国畜牧业碳排放呈缩减趋势,2021年各省畜牧业碳排放梯度差异显著,整体呈"西高东低"的分布格局;2)短期内产业集聚的确可能成为畜牧业碳减排的"阻力",但长期来看又会为畜牧业碳减排"助力";3)产业集聚的"本地-邻地"畜牧业碳排放治理效应呈现出非一致性特征,产业集聚并非一定能抑制本地畜牧业碳排放,主要表现为"先扬后抑"的门槛特征,而产业转移和"磁场效应"的存在,使得产业集聚对邻地畜牧业碳排放治理表现出"U"型作用效应;4)环境规制水平和科技人员密度抑制了本地畜牧业碳排放,但由于"污染避难所"效应以及科技人才的流失,削弱了"本地-邻地"联合减排效应,导致邻地畜牧业碳排放不降反增,农民收入水平和财政支农投入增加带来的"红利"会进一步吸引邻地畜牧产业的转入,加剧本地畜牧业碳排放,缓解邻地畜牧业碳排放。
Effect of industrial agglomeration on carbon emission control in'local-neighborhood'animal husbandry:Resistance or assistance
To explore the impact mechanism of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions in China's animal husbandry industry,based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2007 to 2021(The data do not include those of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan regions.The same below),the carbon emission status of animal husbandry in China was estimated by carbon emission factors.The local and spatial spillover effects of industrial agglomeration on animal husbandry carbon emissions were discussed by using a spatial econometric model.The results showed as follows:1)During the study period,the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in China showed a decreasing trend.In 2021,the carbon emissions gradient of animal husbandry in different provinces showed a significant difference,and the overall distribution pattern was'high in the west and low in the east';2)Industrial agglomeration may indeed become a'resistance'to carbon emission reduction in animal husbandry in the short term,but in the long run it will"assistance"carbon emission reduction in animal husbandry;3)The'local-neighboring'carbon emission control effect of industrial agglomeration presents a non-consistent feature.Industrial agglomeration is not necessarily able to inhibit the carbon emission of local animal husbandry,which is mainly manifested as a threshold feature of'rising first and then suppressing'.The existence of industrial transfer and'magnetic field effect'makes industrial agglomeration show a U-shaped effect on carbon emission control of neighboring animal husbandry.4)The level of environmental regulation and the density of scientific and technological personnel inhibit carbon emissions from local animal husbandry.However,due to the effect of'pollution refuge'and the loss of scientific and technological personnel,the joint emission reduction effect of'local and neighboring'is weakened,resulting in an increase in carbon emissions from neighboring animal husbandry instead of decreasing.The'dividend'brought by the increase in farmers'income level and financial input to support agriculture will further attract the transfer of livestock industry in neighboring areas,increase carbon emissions from local animal husbandry and alleviate carbon emissions from neighboring animal husbandry.

industrial agglomerationcarbon emissionsdynamic evolutionspatial spillover effectanimal husbandry

杜凤君、郑军、吴强

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山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安 271018

产业集聚 碳排放 动态演进 空间溢出效应 畜牧业

2025

中国农业大学学报
中国农业大学

中国农业大学学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.971
ISSN:1009-508X
年,卷(期):2025.30(2)