Spatial-temporal Pattern and Distribution Evolution of Grain Production in China
Comprehensive examination of the differences in food production and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics from the county scale is an important reference value for improving China's grain production and guaranteeing food security issues.The spatio-temporal pattern and distributional dynamic evolution of China's grain production were investigated based on data from 2 545 county scales from 2000 to 2020,using standard deviation ellipse,three-stage nested Theil index and stochastic Kernel density estimation etc methods.The results showed that,the overall level of China's grain production rose at a slow pace,the growth rate of food production showed an obvious fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2020,and China's grain production would remain stable but the growth rate of fgrain production would decline slightly over a long period of time in the future.In terms of spatial distribution pattern,the center of grain production in China was moving to the northwest,showing the directionality of northeast-southwest,and the development dispersion of southeast-northwest.In terms of spatial difference,the overall difference in China's grain production was showing an increasingly high level,and although the contribution rate of county difference in China's grain production had decreased from 49.94％to 29.51％,the county scale was still the most important source of the overall difference.Therefore,spatial differences were mainly dominated by county differences,followed by inter-provincial differences,inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences,respectively.In terms of spatial effect,China's grain production level showed a growing trend and the possibility of local convergence,and its spatial effect had continuity and had obvious positive correlation spatial effect under different time and county space.In coordination with the development trend and practical needs of China's regional economic structure transformation,the"double cycle"development pattern captured the differences in regional grain production resilience in detail,which was conducive to the formulation of reasonable and effective grain production policies tailored to the local conditions of each region,and was of great significance for steadily breaking through the grain production dilemma and coordinating grain production security.
grain productionspatial and temporal differencesdynamic evolutionrandom Kernel density estimation
万方数据
维普
