SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN SICHUAN PROVINCE
Promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction is not only the key to agricultural high-quality development,but also an important part of achieving the"dual carbon"goal.Based on three major types of carbon sources,this paper estimated agricultural carbon emissions in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2020,analyzed their spatial-temporal characteristics and dynamic evolution trends,and clarified regional differences.Then it constructed a panel Tobit model to explore the influencing factors from two levels of economy and society.Furthermore,it interpreted the respective contribution of different factors through the relative importance analysis.The results were listed as follows.(1)Agricultural carbon emissions in Sichuan province presented a fluctuation downward trend,which could be categorized into 4 different stages,such as"fluctuating decline,continuous rise,rapid decline and rebound",while agricultural carbon emission intensity was decreasing annually.(2)Carbon emissions in each city(state)showed the distribution pattern of"high in the surroundings,while low in the middle".(3)Agricultural carbon emission intensity in Sichuan,western Sichuan,Chengdu plain and eastern Sichuan all presented a decreasing trend,and the spatial differences narrowed,but each had certain differences.(4)The level of agricultural development had an inverted U-shaped relationship with agricultural carbon emissions,and agricultural industrial structure,industrial agglomeration level,urbanization level and farmland scale management all had driving effects on agricultural carbon emissions,but mechanization level and agricultural financial support showed inhibiting effects.(5)Compared with the economic level,the social level factors contributed more to agricultural carbon emissions,with the contribution of mechanization level,agricultural financial support,agricultural industry structure and urbanization level ranked as the top fourth,and their combined explanatory power reached 80.016%.In summary,this research studies the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in Sichuan province and explores the key factors affecting the changes in agricultural carbon emissions in various cities and states,and the results will contribute to provide references for agricultural carbon emission reduction planning and precise implementation for Sichuan province and even the whole country.
agricultural carbon emissionsspatial-temporal evolutionpanel Tobit modelrelative importance analysisSichuan province
万方数据
维普
