SIMULATION OF FIRST FLOWERING DATE FOR PEAR AND ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF FROZEN DAMAGE DURING FLOWERING IN JING-JIN-JI REGION
This study aims to analyze the characteristics of frozen damage events during pear flowering period by establishing a simulation model of the first flowering period of pears in Jing-Jin-Ji region,so as to provide support for local pear production management and risk prevention of frozen damage.The method used in this study was based on the spring warming model,the simulation model of pear first flowering period in Jing-Jin-Ji region was established.Combined with the daily temperature data of 171 meteorological stations in the region from 1980 to 2020,the annual pear first flowering period was reconstructed at each station,and the characteristics of frozen damage during flowering are analyzed.The results were listed as follows.(1)The established simulation model of pear first flowering period could accurately simulate the interannual change of pear first flowering period at each phenological observation station.The mean root mean square errors(RMSE)of internal test and cross test of the model was 2.10 day and 2.85 day respectively,and the means values of the coefficient of determinations were 0.87 and 0.75 respectively.The model could be extended to other stations in the study area.(2)Affected by the geographical location and altitude of Jing-Jin-Ji region,the pear flowering period in this region was gradually postponed from south to north,and the average annual first flowering period of each site was from April 2 to May 19;From 1980 to 2020,the first flowering period of pear presented a significant advance trend,with an advance trend of each station was 0.4～5.3day/10a.(3)The frequency of light,medium and severe frost damage in the pear flowering period in the study area showed a spatial distribution of more in the north and less in the south,and showed an increasing trend in 41 years,of which the increasing trend of light frost damage was the most obvious.This was mainly due to the warming climate,and the early flowering period of all stations in Jing-Jin-Ji region was in advance.In a word,under the background of global warming,the first flowering period of pears in Jing-Jin-Ji region is advanced,and the frost damage during the flowering period is increased.It is still necessary to strengthen the prevention of the frost damage during the flowering period of pears.The results can guide local pear planting and provide policy support for disaster prevention and reduction.
spring warming modelfirst flowering datepearfrozen damagespatiotemporal variations
万方数据
维普
