THE IMPACT OF RISK SHOCKS ON RELATIVE POVERTY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS——AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON CFPS DATA
This paper attempts to analyze the mechanisms of risk shocks affecting relative poverty from the perspective of rural households,so as to provide empirical support for enhancing risk resilience of rural households and alleviating relative poverty.Based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper empirically analyzed the impact of risk shocks on relative poverty of rural households by using panel probit model and fixed effect model,and explored the differences in risk coping styles of rural households at different income levels by adopting heterogeneity analysis and panel threshold regression model.The results showed that risk shocks increased the probability of relative poverty among rural households.Disaster shocks were the primary cause of relative poverty among rural households,followed by education shocks and major event shocks.Unemployment shocks and health shocks had a smaller impact on relative poverty.Differences in risk coping styles of rural households at different income levels were one of the important reasons that relatively poor farmers could not get rid of relative poverty.Compared with high-income rural households,low-income rural households would reduce more investment in agricultural production and increase less investment in human capital when exposed to risk shocks,resulting in the existing resource allocation of households being unable to improve the household's future income capacity and keeping them trapped in relative poverty.Therefore,in order to reduce the possibility of rural households falling into relative poverty,the government should further build a more resilient national governance system and a more flexible social assistance system,and improve the sustainable livelihood capacity of rural households.
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