PROVINCIAL SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF HOG PRICES AND ITS DYNAMIC CORRELATION ANALYSIS——BASED ON SPATIAL PANEL MODEL AND DY DECOMPOSITION
To analyze the inter-provincial spatial spillover effect of hog prices and explore the transmission mechanism of China's hog price system through the inter-provincial price linkage effect,which is important for governing the regional unbalanced development of China's hog industry.A spatial Durbin model was established to explore the spatial transmission characteristics of hog prices,and a spillover effect decomposition was introduced to analyze the impact effects of substitute prices and cost elements on provincial hog prices,then a Generalized Forecast Error Decomposition was applied to determine the level and direction of inter-provincial hog price linkages.The results were listed as follow.(1)Hog price fluctuations had significant spatial correlation and heterogeneity,and their spatial clustering characteristics became more and more significant over time,and the industrial layout showed the spatial evolution characteristics of"high-high southern concentration,low-low east to west expansion".(2)The influence of intra-provincial substitute prices and cost factors on hog price fluctuation was significant but limited,and the inter-provincial spillover effect was the dominant factor in the spatial transmission of hog prices.(3)Chicken prices were positively related to hog prices within and outside the province;beef price fluctuations drove the simultaneous fluctuations of hog prices in the province;soybean meal price fluctuations played a positive role in driving hog prices in the province or neighboring provinces;corn price changes caused negative changes in hog prices in the province or neighboring provinces.(4)The positive net correlation of Liaoning,Hebei,Jilin,Henan and other provinces was larger,and they belonged to the"dominant"or"initiator"of fluctuations;the negative net correlation of Shanghai,Guangxi,Chongqing and other provinces and cities was larger,and they belonged to the"receiver";Jiangsu,Hunan,Fujian and other provinces and cities and the national average correlation was the same,in the price volatility transmission system belonged to the volatility of"intermediaries".Therefore,the relevant departments should control pig prices in a hierarchical manner according to the different functions played by different provinces and regions in the pig price transmission system.Meanwhile,it should promote the economic development of local animal husbandry,so as to continuously optimize the regional layout of China's pig breeding industry.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
