ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL,COORDINATION AND TREND OF THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF LIVESTOCK AND POUTRY BREEDING IN JILIN PROVINCE
By taking Jilin province as the research area,this paper comprehensively evaluated and analyzed the level,coordination and trend of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding.An environmental carrying capacity evaluation index system of livestock and poultry breeding was established from four dimensions of livestock and poultry breeding,resource supply,ecological environment and social development.Based on the statistical data of Jilin province from 2014 to 2021,the entropy method and comprehensive evaluation model were used to calculate the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province,and the GM prediction model was constructed to predict the future trend from 2022 to 2026.The results were listed as follows.(1)The environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province from 2014 to 2021 increased substantially(from 0.239 0 to 0.742 3),among which,the livestock and poultry breeding system continued to increase,the resource supply system fluctuated at a lower level,the ecological environment system improved significantly,and the social development system increased first and then decreased.(2)The coupling coordination degree of the four subsystems continued to rise,approaching coordinated development level(from 0.225 2 to 0.418 1).(3)From 2022 to 2026,the carrying capacity remained stable while slowly declining.As such,the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin province was currently in a stable stage and showed a downward trend.Therefore,the sustainable development of animal husbandry in Jilin province can be promoted by optimizing structure of producers,fostering green production mode,strengthening protection and utilization of natural resources,and playing roles of government guidance and market regulation.
livestock and poultry breedingenvironmental carrying capacitycomprehensive evaluationcoordi-nationprediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
