THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SHANDONG PROVINCE COUNTY RURAL SHRINKAGE
This research aims to study the spatial and temporal pattern of rural population shrinkage of Shandong province since 2000 and the spatial differentiation of its influencing factors,so as to enrich the research content of rural shrinkage in China and provide a basis for Shandong province to promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and rural revitalization.Based on the data from the latest three decennial censuses,this research analyzed the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of 90 Shandong counties during 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 by using the data of"nature-socio-economic-policy".And then it dissected the spatial heterogeneity of the leading factors of rural shrinkage by applying multiscale geographically weighted regression model(MGWR).The results were indicated as follows.(1)From 2000 to 2020,the county population of Shandong province generally showed a moderate shrinkage,and the shrinkage trend intensified.The counties with moderate shrinkage were widely distributed.The severe shrinkage counties transferred from appearing in South and Northwest Shandong to other areas except South Shandong,and the mild shrinkage counties shifted from the Jiaodong Peninsula to being present in Northwest and South Shandong.(2)The characteristics of rural shrinkage in Shandong province were mainly accelerated shrinkage and continuous shrinkage.The rural shrinkage in the Jiaodong Peninsula was the most severe,followed by central Shandong and Southwestern Shandong.(3)The influencing factors of rural shrinkage varied across different research cycles,showing different spatial differentiation.Urbanization had a crucial impact on rural shrinkage in the two research cycles,but its negative effect was gradually weakening;The regional economic development,topographical fluctuations,and medical service factors affected the rural shrinkage in the previous research cycle,and their influence decreased from west to east;Local financial status,educational service,village population centrality,and location conditions positively affected the rural shrinkage in the later research cycle,and the influence of local financial status and village population centrality presented a decreasing trend from south to north and from southeast to northwest,respectively.The influence of educational service and location conditions decreased from the middle to both sides.In summary,the county population in Shandong province enters a stage of overall shrinkage,and the spatial and temporal characteristics of rural shrinkage are obvious.The influence of social economic and policy factors on rural shrinkage is greater than that of natural factors,and the influence of social and policy factors is becoming significant.The current rural shrinkage pattern is the result of the combined effects of the above factors.
rural shrinkagespatiotemporal pattern evolutioninfluencing factorsMGWRcounties in Shandong province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
