CHANGES IN CHINA'S FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION PATTERN AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS
This study aims to analyze regional variations and influencing factors on the production layout of feed grains in China,so as to optimize the production layout of feed grains and promote the healthy development of the feed grain industry.Using data from 31 provinces(cities,autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2021 in China,this study employed the sub-species input method and the gravity model to evaluate changes in feed grain layout and its gravity center,and used the spatial Durbin model to further analyze the influencing factors.The results were listed as follows.(1)The overall production of feed grains had been continuously increasing from 2000 to 2021,and the clustering characteristics had become increasingly evident,with notable growth in spatial aggregation shifting to northeast,north China,and southwest regions.The gravity center of feed grain production shifted from Henan province to Hebei province with a focus on the southwest and northeast,and a general shift towards the northeast.(2)There was a positive spatial autocorrelation in China's feed grain production,with a trend towards clustering at both high-and low-yielding regions.(3)Factors such as the proportion of agricultural output,effective irrigation area,fertilizer application,cultivated land area,and agricultural financial expenditure had a significant positive impact on feed grain production.Furthermore,the per capita disposable income of rural residents in neighboring areas,number of employees in the primary industry,transportation mileage,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area,and fertilizer application had an impact on feed grain production in the region,demonstrating spatial spillover effects.Base on the results,it proposes policy implications to improve the high-quality development of feed grain industry and guarantee feed grain security,for example,optimize the production layout of feed grain,improve the radiation driving capacity of provinces with high production capacity through spatial correlation,and strengthen regional cooperation.
feed grainproduction patterngravity center modelspatial Durbin modelMoran's I index
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
