THE PATH ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHANGES AND PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT OF GRAIN SUPPLY IN CHINA
Since the reform and opening up,grain supply has experienced different development stages and spatial-temporal changes in China. Natural conditions,economic factors and policy factors have driven the formation of the current grain supply pattern in different ways. This paper analyzed the path of the spatial-temporal changes of grain supply and productivity improvement in the past of China,and put forward the possible ways to increase grain productivity in the future. The different development stages of grain supply were reclassified from the perspective of grain production increase. On this basis,the standard deviation ellipse was used to describe the change path of grain production increase,and the supply response model was used to analyze the driving factors of grain supply growth,then the potential and direction of a new round of grain production capacity improvement was analyzed by the empirical method. It was found that grain supply experienced three stages of grain supply growth in China,it was from 1978 to 1998,from 2003 to 2015,and from 2019 to the present. In these three stages,the center of gravity of grain production increase moved from southwest to northeast to northwest. The center of gravity of rice production increase moved to northeast continuously,and the center of gravity of wheat production increase did not change much in each stage. The center of gravity of corn production increase moves from southwest to northeast to northwest,and the center of gravity of soybean production increase moved from northeast to southwest to northeast. By analyzing the driving factors of grain supply growth through the supply response model,it was found that the increase of grain prices and the implementation of agricultural policies had a positive impact on grain supply,while fertilizer prices and natural disasters had a negative impact on grain supply. The regional economic development was contrary to the growing trend of grain supply,and the regional characteristics of grain supply were obvious. Finally,summarizing the past experience and path of grain supply growth,the following suggestions are put forward to ensure the future increase of grain production capacity:Optimizing the distribution of grain industry to alleviate the contradiction between the center of gravity of grain growth and natural conditions,resource endowments and the levels of economic development. Giving full play to the incentive role of grain prices and agricultural policies in grain production,and ensuring the stability of farmers' expectations of grain production prices. At the same time,strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure and agricultural scientific and technological innovation,improving the ability of grain supply to resist natural risks,so as to improve grain production efficiency and capacity.
grain supplyspatial-temporal distribution100 billion jin production capacity increasestandard deviation ellipsesupply response model
万方数据
维普
