ANALYSIS OF THE FLUCTUATION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN SHANXI PROVINCE
To explore the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of grain production in Shanxi province,and provide scientific references for ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of grain production. The H-P filtering method was used to measure the fluctuation characteristics of grain production in Shanxi province,and its time series was divided into periods. Based on this,the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influencing factors of grain production fluctuations. The results were listed as follows. (1) The long-term fluctuation trend of grain production in Shanxi province showed a smooth upward trend,which could be divided into three curve stages:from 1978 to 1996,it showed a slow and steady increase;From 1996 to 2009,it belonged to a downward smoothing curve with fluctuations;From 2009 to 2022,a smooth upward trend resumed and a-thirteen-year continuous growth trend was achieved,with an average annual growth rate of 3.34％. (2) The long-term trend of grain yield per unit area showed a similar "increase fluctuation increase" curve to the total grain production,but it was smoother and more stable than the total production,showing an increasing trend year by year. The long-term trend line of grain sowing area showed a clear fluctuation trend,with an overall trend of first rapid declined,then slow increased,and then further declined. (3) Based on the calculation of variation rate,the grain production time series in Shanxi province was divided into seven fluctuation periods:1978-1984,1984-1990,1990-1996,1996-2001,2001-2006,2006-2013,2013-2018. The average fluctuation period was 6.71 years,and from 2018 to 2022,due to the small fluctuation amplitude,no fluctuation period had yet formed. (4) The maximum peak value of grain fluctuations in Shanxi was 15.38％,the absolute maximum value of valleys was 32.71％,and the maximum amplitude was 48.09％,all of which occurred in the period from 1996 to 2001;The minimum amplitude was 7.74％,occurring in the period from 2013 to 2018;The average wave amplitude was 23.41％;The average peak value was 10.60％,and the absolute average valley value was 12.82％. The fluctuation of grain production had a continuous characteristic,and the fluctuation amplitude is large,showing a significant trend of increasing first and then weakening. (5) Before 2001,factors such as sowing area and fertilizer application had a significant impact on grain yield;Since 2001,the impact of factors such as effective irrigation area,total power of agricultural machinery,per capita disposable income of rural residents,and fiscal support for agriculture on grain production had gradually increased. Among natural factors,annual rainfall had the greatest impact on grain yield,and with the increase of effective irrigation area,the impact of annual rainfall ranks slightly backward;The correlation between average temperature and other natural factors and grain yield was relatively stable. Therefore,the long-term trend of grain production in Shanxi follows a cyclical trend of "growth fluctuation growth". Although grain production fluctuates greatly in the short term,it shows a certain degree of sustainability in long-term stable production,and the stable trend of grain production in Shanxi is obvious in the future.
grain productionfluctuation characteristicsinfluencing factorsH-P filtering methodShanxi province
万方数据
维普
