THE WELFARE EFFECT OF CHINA'S "ANTI-DUMPING ANDCOUNTERVAILING" MEASURES ON IMPORTED FOOD UNDER THE BIG FOOD PERSPECTIVE——A SIMULATION STUDY OF PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BASED ON BARLEY INDUSTRY
This paper dynamically evaluates the trade and welfare effects of the implementation of "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures in the food industry from a global perspective,simulates the impact of "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures on the evolution of the international trade pattern of barley,and further enhances the effectiveness of trade remedy policy tools in the food industry. This paper comprehensively analyzed the economic effects of China's "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures against Australian barley from a global perspective by using a computable partial equilibrium GSIM model,and dynamically described the evolution characteristics of the global barley trade pattern according to the simulation results. The simulation results were showed as follows. (1) After China imposed 73.6％ anti-dumping duty and 6.9％ countervailing duty on imported barley from Australia,the export volume of Australian barley to China would decrease by 37.2％,China's domestic barley production would increase by 5.05％,and the domestic market price would increase by 18.04％. (2) Due to the trade transfer effect,the source country of China's barley imports shifted from Australia to France,Ukraine,Canada,and other countries,while Australia sought new barley export markets to reduce its own economic losses,and exported to Germany,Saudi Arabia and other countries increased. (3) China's tax on Australian barley resulted in a US $332 million reduction in Australia's net welfare level,far greater than China's net welfare loss. (4) The tightness of the global barley trade pattern declined due to the implementation of the "Anti-dumping and Countervailing" measures,the center of gravity of Australia's barley export trade network shifted from China to other countries,and the center of China's barley import trade network shifted from Australia to Canada. Therefore,this paper suggests that the scale and rhythm of food imports should be scientifically grasped to optimize the global layout of the import structure;the welfare effects of food trade remedies should be dynamically assessed to enhance the effectiveness of trade remedy policy tools;and the global concept of the community of destiny should be resolutely upheld to construct a mutually beneficial and win-win food industry chain supply chain.
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