TIME-VARYING IMPACT EFFECT OF FEED PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCT PRICES
The livestock industry is grappling with a sustained decrease,and even losses,in breeder profits due to the dual pressure from elevated feed costs and diminished livestock and poultry prices.Investigating the transmission effects and influencing mechanisms of feed price fluctuations on livestock product prices is instrumental in providing regulatory strategies for governments and breeders,ensuring the persistent and healthy development of breeder profits and the industry.Utilizing data on major feed and livestock product prices in China from January 2008 to August 2023,this study adopted the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression model to explore the price fluctuation transmission response mechanism and transmission timeliness between feed and livestock product markets.The results were found as follows.(1) The impact of feed price fluctuations was not the principal cause of long-term fluctuations in livestock prices.When responding to feed price fluctuations,the pork and chicken markets exhibited similar reactions,as did the mutton and beef markets.(2) There was a significant negative impact of feed price volatility on pork prices.Specifically,a 1％ increasing in the prices of corn and soybean meal led to a respective approximate decrease of 0.003％ and 0.006％ in the growth rate of pork prices.Moreover,corn price fluctuations exerted a short-term negative but long-term positive reversal effect on chicken prices.(3) The impact of feed price fluctuations persisted for about ten months in the pork market and approximately fifteen months in the chicken,sheep,and beef markets.The impact of corn price fluctuations on the livestock product market,except for the chicken market,occurred more rapidly compared to soybean meal.Therefore,based on these findings,policy recommendations are proposed,including encouraging breeders to utilize risk management tools,intensifying the substitution of unconventional raw materials,enhancing strategic procurement,perfecting the price parameter collection system and standards,and progressively establishing a price insurance mechanism.
feed priceslivestock product pricesimpactprice transmissionTVP-SV-VAR model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
