首页|深圳市2013-2022年6～19岁人群主要呼吸道传染病流行趋势

深圳市2013-2022年6～19岁人群主要呼吸道传染病流行趋势

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目的 分析2013-2022年深圳市6～19岁人群主要呼吸道传染病的流行特征及变化趋势,为开展防控工作提供参考.方法 收集深圳市2013-2022年6～19岁人群流行性感冒(流感)、流行性腮腺炎(流腮)及水痘报告病例,采用描述性流行病学方法和Joinpoint回归模型进行流行特征和发病率趋势变化分析.结果 2013-2022年深圳市6～19岁人群流感、流腮和水痘的年平均发病率分别为961.44/10万、157.70/10万及664.34/10万.流感发病率呈上升趋势,年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)为52.88％(P＜0.05).流腮和水痘发病率均以2019年为转折点先升后降,流腮发病率APC分别为11.51％和-43.49％(P＞0.05),水痘发病率APC分别为28.88％和-50.03％(P＜0.05).从季节分布上看,3种传染病发病均呈双峰分布,冬季(12月-次年1月)及春夏交际(4-6月)高发.6～＜10岁人群报告3种传染病病例数占比超过60％.10～＜15岁和15～19岁人群水痘发病占比呈上升趋势.15～19岁人群流感和水痘发病率上升速度最快,APC分别为77.89％和33.00％(P＜0.05).结论 基于Joinpoint回归模型的趋势分析观察到2013-2022年深圳市6～19岁人群流感报告发病率呈上升趋势,水痘发病率呈"升-降"变化.6～＜10岁儿童为主要发病人群,应继续推进小学的传染病防控工作,同时15～19岁人群的呼吸道传染病发病率的快速上升及10～19岁人群水痘发病占比升高,提示应对高年龄组未成年人群的免疫空白和集中住宿等影响因素开展干预.
Epidemiological secular trend of main respiratory infectious diseases among 6-19 year-old population in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022
Objective To analyze epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of common respiratory infectious diseases among 6-19 year-old population in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2021,and to provide a reference for prevention and control.Methods Data of influenza,mumps and varicella reported cases among the population aged 6-19 years in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2021 were collected,and descriptive methods and Joinpoint regression model were used to analyze epidemiological characteristics and trends of incidences.Results Between 2013 and 2022 in Shenzhen,the average annual incidence rates of influenza,mumps,and varicella among the population aged 6-19 years were 961.44/100 000,157.70/100 000,and 664.34/100 000 respectively.The incidence of influenza showed an upward trend in 10 years,with an annual percent change(APC)of 52.88％(P＜0.05).The incidence of mumps and varicella both showed an'up-down'trend,with an inflection point in 2019.The incidence APC of mumps were 11.51％and-43.49％,respectively(P>0.05),while the incidence APC of varicella were 28.88％and-50.03％,respectively(P＜0.05),respectively.From the point of seasonal distribution,the incidence of three infectious diseases all showed bimodal distribution,with peaks in winter(December to January of the following year)and at the turn from spring to summer(April to June).The proportion of reported cases of three infectious diseases among people aged 6-＜10 years old exceeded 60％.The proportion of varicella cases among people aged 10-＜15 and 15-19 was on the rise.The incidence rate of influenza and varicella in people aged 15-19 years increased fastest,with APCs of 77.89％and 33.00％,respectively(both P＜0.05).Conclusions The trend analysis based on Joinpoint regression model displayed that the reported incidence of influenza among people aged 6-19 years in Shenzhen during 2013-2022 showed an upward trend,and the incidence of varicella had an'up-down'trend.Children aged 6-＜10 years old are the main incidence group,and the prevention and control of infectious diseases in primary schools should be further promoted.Meanwhile,the rapid rise in the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases among people aged 15-19 years old and the increase in the proportion of varicella cases among people aged 10-19 years old suggest that intervention should be carried out to address the influential factors such as immunization gaps and concentrated accommodation in the older age group of minors.

Influenzamumpsvaricellaepidemiological characteristicsJoinpoint regression model

罗日景、温莹、程雁鹏、陈霓璇、黄芳、陈志高、张振、吕秋莹

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南方医科大学公共卫生学院,广东广州 510515

深圳市疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳 518055

流行性感冒 流行性腮腺炎 水痘 流行特征 Joinpoint回归模型

深圳市科技创新委员会重点项目深圳市医学重点学科(公共卫生重点专科)深圳市"医疗卫生三名工程"项目深圳市科技创新委员会重点项目深圳市科技创新委员会重点项目

JCYJ20210324115411030SZXK064SZSM202011008JCYJ20200109150715644JSGG20200225153023511

2024

10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2024.02.12

中国热带医学
中华预防医学会,海南疾病预防控制中心

中国热带医学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.722
ISSN：1009-9727
年,卷(期)：2024.24(2)
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