Optimization research on control strategies for dengue fever transmission models
Objective To analyze the cost-effectiveness of dengue intervention measures and integrated control strategies,to explore the most cost-efficient control strategies and their implementation plans under different scenarios,providing decision-making support and guidance for dengue prevention and control efforts. Methods Based on the dengue transmission dynamics model,a quantitative analysis is conducted on five intervention measures:public education,preventive mosquito control,source reduction,emergency mosquito control,and isolation treatment. A comprehensive dengue control strategy is established,and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to search for the optimal parameter values of various control strategies under different scenarios,considering costs—i.e.,determining the best implementation plan. The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) indicators are used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness relationships between different control strategies across various scenarios,aiming to explore economically effective dengue control strategies. Results Among the evaluated intervention measures,the cost-effectiveness from lowest to highest is as follows:isolation treatment,public education,source reduction,preventive mosquito control,and emergency mosquito control. For different intervention scenarios,the combination of public education,source reduction,emergency mosquito control,and isolation treatment proved to be the most cost-effective control strategy. When the maximum coverage rate of isolation treatment reaches 70％,implementing the other interventions at approximately 20％ coverage or intensity in the second year can eliminate the outbreak within five years. Conclusion Relevant departments should implement preventive control measures in advance,increasing the coverage rate of isolation treatment for dengue fever patients. At the same time,efforts should focus on strengthening public education on dengue fever prevention,formulating scientifically sound and reasonable daily prevention plans,and implementing comprehensive intervention measures while considering costs,aiming to achieve rapid control of the dengue fever epidemic.
万方数据
维普
