The Dynamics of China's Population Momentum and Its Urban-Rural Differences
China has observed negative population growth since 2022.It is useful to view the population change through the perspective of population momentum.This study uses data from China's population censuses and 1％national population sample survey to examine the population momentum changes during the past 70 years,and explore its long-term impacts on population development.We find that:(1)As early as the 1990s,China's population began to accumulate intrinsic negative population growth force,and the continuing low fertility rate has led to a significant negative population growth momentum by 2020.(2)The negative population growth,driven by lowest-low fertility rate,may accelerate population decline and aging.The longer the lowest-low fertility rate lasts,the stronger the negative growth momentum will be.(3)Both urban and rural areas show negative population momentum in 2020,resulting from their converging low fertility.Yet,the proportion of young population in urban area overtakes that in rural area,resulting in a stronger negative population momentum in rural areas.The population momentum reflects the deviation of the actual population from the hypothetical stationary one,and it helps to judge the intrinsic population trend and to cope with the negative population growth properly.
Population MomentumNegative Population GrowthPopulation CensusUrban-Rural Differences
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
