The Pattern and Dynamics of County-Level Population Flow in China:Simulation and Projection Using the Cauchy Distribution
In the context of diverging regional population growth,it is vital to investigate whether the population flow follows some endogenous statistical distribution.The study analyzes the pattern and dynamics of the county-level population flow in China using data from the latest three population censuses.It finds that China's county-level population flow is regionally unbalanced,with features that meet the Cauchy distribution quiet well.We model the parameters and use them to simulate and project the county-level population flow from 2000 to 2050.We find that,in the next 30 years,the county-level population flow is expected to be increasingly active.There will be 1824 counties active in inter-county population flow and 1596 counties active in intra-county population flow in 2050.By then,the unevenness of the county-level population flow will intensify,and regional population will further diverge.Over the study period,the number of counties with active inter-county outflow increases,so does the scale of outflow population,which aggravates the county population contraction.On the other hand,the number of counties with active inter-county inflow decreases,but the population inflows in the major hosting regions increase.Therefore,more and more people flow into fewer hosting counties,which will aggravate the population agglomeration of those counties.The article provides policy insights for assessing and monitoring the future trends of population flow in China,formulating prospective economic and social development plans,and guiding population flows in an orderly and efficient manner.
Floating Population DistributionCauchy DistributionNon-EquilibriumSimulation and Prediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
