Targeting Fertility Support Policy in China:Insights from the Marriage-and-Parity-Progression Analysis
Policy targeting bias has been identified as one of the main reasons for the failure of pronatalist policies to achieve expected outcome.This study uses the Marriage-and-Parity-Progression Analysis Model,which calculates the age specific rates of first marriage and parity progression(ASMRs and APSFRs)and the age-specific fertility elasticities of different groups,to identify the key target groups with higher fertility elasticities.The study finds that the ASMRs and APSFRs for parity one of young women are the foundation for a moderate TFR,and marriage rates play a dominant role in determining female's fertility trajectory in China.The findings from elasticity analysis highlight the heterogeneity in socioeconomic status in determining the fertility trends.In this sense,the current fertility support policies show a targeting error in focusing mainly on encouraging second and third births,with little attention paid to others.The policy should shift its target forward,focusing on the unmarried young people aged 20 to 29,and encouraging marriages at right ages.In addition,the policy design should take social class heterogeneity into consideration.
Marriage ProgressionParity ProgressionFertility Support PolicyPolicy Targeting Error
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
