首页|高等教育对婚育行为 影响的历时演变——兼论原生家庭社会阶层的异质性影响

高等教育对婚育行为 影响的历时演变——兼论原生家庭社会阶层的异质性影响

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人口负增长形势下,考察育龄人群婚育行为的影响机制及其潜在变化,对于全面理解当前年轻人的晚婚和低生育行为、制定有效的家庭支持措施具有重要意义.文章利用2006~2021年中国综合社会调查数据,分析了高等教育对初婚和生育行为的影响及其随时间变化趋势,重点检验了高等教育扩招以来原生家庭社会阶层的异质性影响.研究发现,接受高等教育会显著推迟个人的初婚年龄,减少其生育数量;随着时间的推移,高等教育对个人初婚年龄的推迟效应在年轻队列中明显增强,但对生育数量的抑制效应有所减弱.在原生家庭社会阶层较低的群体中,高等教育对生育行为的抑制效应更为显著;不过,相应异质性并未随时间扩大.在年轻的出生队列中,较高社会阶层出身的高等教育学历者实际生育的数量显著更低,反映了家庭成长环境及价值观念对高学历年轻人生育行为的重要影响.基于此,文章强调生育支持政策体系的建构应当重视不同群体生育状况的异质性,有针对性地设计政策干预,为育龄人群的家庭构建行为提供更有效的支持.
The Changes in the Impact of Higher Education on Marriage and Fertility:Viewing from the Heterogeneity of Family Origin
It is of great significance to examine the potential changes in factors influencing marriage and reproductive behavior in the era of sustained marriage delay and fertility decline in China.Using data from the 2006~2021 CGSS,the article explores the potential changes in the effect of higher education on individuals'marriage and childbearing behavior,with special focus on the heterogeneity arising from the enlarging variation in higher education graduates'family origin.It finds that having higher education significantly delays one's age at first marriage,and the postponement effect strengthens among younger cohorts.In addition,having higher education also tends to reduce individuals'fertility,although this negative effect attenuates somewhat among younger cohorts.The negative impact of higher education on fertility is greater for those from lower social class families,and it increases significantly for the higher education graduates from higher social class families in the cohort born in the 1980s.The study highlights the importance to taking the heterogeneity and changes in the mechanism of delaying marriage and low fertility into consideration in making family support policies.

Higher EducationMarriage and Childbearing BehaviorCohort VariationHeterogenous Treatment Effects

陈滔

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西安交通大学人文社会科学学院

高等教育 婚育行为 队列差异 处理效应异质性

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金

23YJC840003

2024

中国人口科学
中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

中国人口科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.654
ISSN:1000-7881
年,卷(期):2024.38(2)
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