Analysis on the Fertility Intention for Additional Births in the Three-Child Policy Era:Viewing from Quantity and Certainty Perspectives
In the current context of low fertility rates,accurate assessment of fertility intention is crucial.This paper distinguishes between"fertility intention"and"fertility desire",introducing an innovative approach to assess the strength of parents'intentions to have more children,considering both quantity and certainty aspects.The study reveals that,despite a general preference for two children as the ideal,actual intentions to enlarge families are remarkably low and uncertain.Even among the parents having only one child and not achieved their desired family size,there is a discernible reluctance to pursue additional children.Nearly half of these parents are resolute in not having more children,with the rest fluctuating between reluctance and indecision.This indecision highlights a conflict between the desire for more children and practical barriers.The study highlights the critical influence of uncertainty in fertility planning and establishes a significant relationship between fertility desires,the current number of children,and the intention to have another child.Unfulfilled desires for a specific number of children not only heighten the uncertainty of decision-making but also bolster positive intention for another child.Furthermore,the unmet preference for a son among families with two daughters can influence the intention to consider having another child.This research proposes a novel framework for the precise measurement of fertility intentions,offering essential insights for theoretical discussions and policy formulations concerning fertility intention dynamics.
Fertility DesireIntention for Additional BirthsUncertaintyGender Preference
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
