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教育—工作匹配状况对年轻人生育意愿的影响研究

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教育—工作匹配状况对个人工作与生活的诸多方面具有重要影响.在教育不断发展、生育率持续走低的背景下,文章从教育—工作匹配视角出发,运用2018年CFPS数据考察过度教育对年轻人生育意愿的影响,检验了收入、心理等因素的中介作用机制.研究发现,在同等教育水平下,教育—工作匹配状况为过度教育的年轻人生育意愿显著更低,且相应影响在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.异质性分析结果显示,过度教育对女性、西部地区、农业户籍及20世纪80年代出生人群的生育意愿有更为明显的抑制作用.相对于教育—工作适配者,过度教育的工资惩罚客观上降低了机会成本,但过度教育者的收入回报仍为正,其抑制生育的机会成本效应依然显著存在;加之,过度教育还会通过教育失望效应和工资惩罚带来的收入失望效应,降低年轻人的生活期望,进而形成对生育意愿的多重抑制作用.这些机制可能是当代年轻人低生育意愿逐渐由被动转变为主动选择的重要原因.因此,未来人口发展战略的着眼点应充分考虑教育发展与劳动力市场的衔接关系,加快建设全国统一劳动力大市场,深化教育体系改革,从全生命周期和性别公平视角创建生育友好型工作与生活环境,促进"教育—工作—家庭"互益互补.
The Impact of Education-Job Matching on Fertility Intention of Young Adults
Education-job matching has important impacts on individuals'work and life.This article examines the effect of overeducation on fertility intention of young adults using the 2018 CFPS data,by incorporating income and psychological factors into a comprehensive framework with multiple mediation mechanisms.We find that overeducation significantly negatively affects fertility intention,which holds robust in a series of tests.The heterogeneity analysis shows that overeducation has more salient suppressing effects on the fertility intention of women,those living in western region or in rural areas,and people born in the 1980s.Compared with the state of education-work adaptation,although the wage punishment of overeducation reduces the opportunity cost,the opportunity cost effect of restraining childbearing still exists significantly.What's more,overeducation has multifaceted inhibition effects on fertility intention from the psychological mechanisms through the disappointment effect of education and the income disappointment effect caused by salary punishment,which makes the young adults'low fertility intention changing gradually from a passive choice to an initiative one.This study concludes with a policy suggestion on the population strategy to fully consider the connection between education and labour market.And it is important to construct a unified national labor market,reform our education system,create a fertility-friendly and gender-equal environment covering the entire life cycle,and promote the complementarity of education,work and family.

OvereducationFertility IntentionIncomeLife ExpectationFertility Support

陆杰华、孙杨

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北京大学社会学系

中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院

过度教育 生育意愿 收入 生活期望 生育支持

北京市社会科学基金重大项目

20ZDA32

2024

中国人口科学
中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

中国人口科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.654
ISSN:1000-7881
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)