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长期照护方式选择对失能老人死亡风险的影响研究

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随着失能老人数量增加,全社会养老压力日益加大.如何选择与养老需求相匹配的照护方式,对失能老人的健康福祉乃至死亡风险有重要影响.文章基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查项目(CLHLS)2008~2018年的4期追踪调查数据,采用Cox比例风险模型分析了不同长期照护方式选择对失能老人死亡风险的影响.研究发现如下.(1)照护方式对轻度失能老人的死亡风险具有显著的影响.相对于非正式照护,正式照护会显著降低轻度失能老人的死亡风险,尤其会显著降低女性、无配偶、接受过教育的失能老人的死亡风险.(2)在正式照护中,接受机构照护者的死亡风险显著低于接受社区照护者;在非正式照护中,由配偶照护的老人死亡风险比由子女照护的老人更低.通过探讨长期照护方式选择对中国失能老人死亡风险的影响及其差异,文章检验了既有照护理论的经验推断,为发展和完善照护理论提供了经验依据,研究发现有望为建立多层次长期照护体系、完善保障失能老人的福利政策提供决策参考.
The Effect of Long-Term Care Choice on the Mortality of Disabled Elderly
The increasing volume of disabled elderly gives rise to long-term care pressure for the whole society.It has significant health impacts to choose an appropriate type of long-term care which matches the elderly's needs.Using the longitudinal survey data of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)from 2008 to 2018,this paper fits the Cox model to explore the impact of different types of long-term care on the mortality of the disabled elderly.We find that:(1)Compared with informal care,formal care can significantly reduce the mortality of the mildly disabled elderly.And the effect is especially significant for the female,spouseless,and educated disabled elderly.(2)Among formal cares,the mortality-reducing effect is higher for institutional care,as compared to community care.As for informal cares,the mortality-reducing effect is higher for spousal care compared to the care provided by children.This paper highlights the importance of the long-term care mode for the disabled elderly,and it provides empirical evidence and policy suggestion for establishing a multi-level long-term care system in China.

Disabled ElderlyLong-Term Care ModeMortality RiskCox Proportional Hazard Model

杨华磊、肖文静、方格格

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中南财经政法大学公共管理学院

失能老人 长期照护方式 死亡风险 Cox比例风险模型

中央高校基本科研业务费专项中南财经政法大学项目国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文资助项目

2722022BY01721FRKB003

2024

中国人口科学
中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

中国人口科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.654
ISSN:1000-7881
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)