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化肥"零增长"政策会影响粮食安全吗:基于准自然实验的RD检验

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基于我国13 个粮食主产区2004-2021 年的面板数据,将2015 年化肥"零增长"政策视为一次准自然实验,采用断点回归实证检验化肥"零增长"政策对我国粮食主产区化肥施用水平的影响,进而分析此政策对我国粮食安全的影响.断点回归结果表明:化肥"零增长"政策可显著降低化肥施用强度,同时对粮食产量和3 大粮食作物(稻谷、小麦和玉米)产量提升具有显著的促进效应.影响机制分析表明:化肥"零增长"政策对粮食产量的促进效应源于化肥利用效率的提高,粮食主产区内高度集中且呈规模化的化肥减量增效行动能够催生粮食增产的规模效应.异质性分析表明:在化肥"零增长"政策冲击下,东部地区和中部地区的粮食总产量和稻谷、小麦和玉米产量均显著提升,中部地区和东北地区的化肥施用强度显著降低.粮食主产区在实现化肥减量增效的同时,确保了粮食生产能力不下降甚至提高,进而有效地保障了国家粮食安全.由此表明,进一步实施化肥"零增长"政策,可以实现化肥减量增效与保障粮食安全的"双赢",更好地推动农业绿色发展,助力农业强国建设.
Will fertilizer"zero-growth"policy affect food security:RD test based on quasi-natural experiment
Based on the panel data of 13 major grain producing areas in China from 2004 to 2021,this paper considers the fertilizer"zero growth"policy in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,and adopts regression discontinuity to empironally test the influence of the policy on the fertilizer application level in China's major grain-producing areas,and then analyzes the influence of the policy on China's food security.The regression discontinuity results showed that the fertilizer"zero-growth"policy can significantly reduce the fertilizer application intensity,and at the same time have a significant promoting effect on the grain yield and the yield increase of the three major grain crops(rice,wheat and corn).The mechanism analysis showed that the promotion effect of the fertilizer"zero growth"policy on grain output was due to the improvement of fertilizer utilization efficiency,and the highly concentrated and large-scale action of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase in major grain producing areas could generate scale effect of grain increase.Heterogeneity analysis showed that under the impact of the fertilizer"zero growth"policy,the total grain yield and rice,wheat and corn yields in the eastern and central regions increased significantly,while the fertilizer application intensity in the central and northeast regions decreased significantly.While achieving fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase,the grain production capacity of the major grain producing areas has not decreased or even increased,thus effectively ensuring the national food security.This indicates that further implementation of the fertilizer"zero growth"policy can achieve a"win-win"of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase and ensuring food security,better promote the green development of agriculture,and help build China into an agricultural powerhouse.

fertilizer"zero growth"policyfood securityquasi-natural experimentregression discontinuitymajor grain producing areas

林珊、于法稳、代明慧

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中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京 102488

中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京 100732

中国社会科学院生态环境经济研究中心,北京 100732

菏泽学院商学院,山东 菏泽 274015

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化肥"零增长"政策 粮食安全 准自然实验 断点回归 粮食主产区

国家社会科学基金重大项目中国社会科学院创新工程"学者资助计划"项目中国社会科学院国家高端智库基础研究项目中国社会科学院大学"研究生科研创新支持计划"项目

23ZDA105XC20230012023-KY-67

2024

中国软科学
中国软科学研究会

中国软科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.793
ISSN：1002-9753
年,卷(期)：2024.(1)
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