Discussion on the desirable range of China's manufacturing industry in new stage of development
From 2006 to 2018,the proportion of China's manufacturing added value in GDP fell by 9.3 percentage points,and the per capita GDP has not yet reached the level of stable economic growth that can rely on the service industry as the most important pillar industry,and the premature and rapid decline in the proportion of manufacturing has caused widespread concern.This study believes that on the basis of satisfying the general law of industrialization,conforming to the characteristics of the current era of technological revolution and China's special global division of labor status and national conditions,there is a"desirable"range for the change of the proportion of China's manufacturing industry,which is lower than the level of the same development stage of developed countries,higher than the current average level of medium-developed countries,slightly higher than the current level of manufacturing powers such as Japan,Germany and South Korea,and higher than the peak of the proportion of manufacturing in countries that fell into the middle-income trap at that time.At the same time,it can ensure the realization of the strategic goal of achieving per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country in 2035-that is,26.8%～27.3%in 2025,26.3%～26.6%in 2030,and 25.6%～26.0%in 2035.Technological progress,domestic market release,factor allocation optimization,industrial policy improvement,regional layout adjustment,etc.can provide support for China's manufacturing industry to maintain the proportion of added value in the"desirable"range under the condition of slowing down the growth of output value.Yet in order to release the new momentum of manufacturing development,it is necessary to focus on cultivating the ability to grasp the opportunities of the new industrial revolution,the ability to stabilize the transformation of development momentum and the ability to respond to external challenges.
manufacturingproportion of manufacturingdesirable range of proportion
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