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中国再制造产业的碳减排效应和经济影响分析

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发展再制造有助于推动碳减排,但不同再制造产业规模下的碳减排效应和经济影响仍不明确.将再制造产业作为一个部门引入一般均衡模型,结合结构路径分析法,解析再制造如何影响碳排放和经济发展,并量化评估再制造带来的碳减排效应和经济影响.结果表明,再制造能够减少对电力生产和供应、金属冶炼的需求,从而带动碳排放总量下降0.02%~0.31%,但造成GDP 0.003%~0.043%的小幅下降;地方再制造产业的发展能够通过区域间贸易影响其他地区的生产活动,并进一步带动其他地区的碳减排;随着产业规模的扩大,再制造能创造更多就业岗位,但未来劳动力价格上升也可能制约其进一步发展.
Analysis of the carbon emission reduction effects and economic impacts of China's remanufacturing industry
Developing remanufacturing can drive carbon emission reduction,but the carbon emission reduction effects and economic impacts at different scales of the remanufacturing industry are still unclear.By introducing the remanufacturing industry as a sector into a general equilibrium model and combining it with structural path analysis,this study analyzes how remanufacturing affects carbon emissions and economic development,and quantitatively evaluates the carbon emission reduction effects and economic impacts brought about by remanufacturing.The results indicate that remanufacturing can reduce the demand for electricity production and supply,as well as metal smelting,driving a decrease in total carbon emissions of 0.02%~0.31%,but causing a slight decrease in GDP of 0.003%~0.043%.The development of local remanufacturing industries can impact the production activities of other regions through inter-regional trade,further driving carbon emission reduction in other regions.As the industry scales up,remanufacturing can create more job opportunities,but the future rise in labor costs may constrain its further development.

remanufacturingcircular economydual-carbon goalsautomobile partsCGE model

于仲觉、朱庆华

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上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海 200030

上海交通大学—联合国工业发展组织绿色增长联合研究院,上海 200030

再制造 循环经济 双碳目标 汽车零部件 CGE模型

国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目国家自然科学基金重大项目中国博士后科学基金面上项目国家自然科学基金青年基金

7222100172192833/721928302023M174226672304182

2024

中国软科学
中国软科学研究会

中国软科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.793
ISSN:1002-9753
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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