Population aging,postponing retirement and economic growth
Chinese path to modernization is a modernization characterized by a huge population and coincides with the aging of population and negative labor force growth.Therefore,it faces scientific choices in the path and promotion of economic development.Based on the principle of balanced distribution of national wealth and population structure,this article constructs a mathematical model for the effect of postponed retirement on increased labor supply to economic growth,and explores the synergy and policy choices between delayed retirement age,labor supply and economic growth.The study finds that:(1)The peak of negative labor force growth and the peak of elderly population growth are concentrated between 2025 and 2035,positioning this period as the optimal timing for raising the retirement age during the"13th Five-Year Plan".(2)From 2000 to 2035,the increase in the retirement age leads to a 1.60%increase in labor supply coefficient and a 1.11%optimization coefficient for labor force growth.(3)If delayed retirement to 65 years old is implemented between 2025 and 2035,with a delay of 6 months per year,the synergistic optimization rate of hedging population aging on labor force crowding over a period of 10 years is 50%.The contribution rate of delayed retirement age to economic growth is0.46%,with a contribution rate of 0.021 percentage points to economic growth.(4)Raising the retirement age has a positive effect on optimizing the path of population aging.On this basis,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.
population agingnegative labor force growthpostponed retirementeconomic growth synergy
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
