Study on the influence of demographic and technological progress changes on interest rate evolution in China
In recent years,China's economy has shown a trend of"three lows and one high",and macro-policy control has been trapped in the dilemma of"low interest rate",which may lead to the risk of"long-term stagnation"in macro-economy.Based on this,this paper constructs a TVP-VAR model to deeply explore the mystery of the formation of China's"low interest rate"from the perspective of changes in economic growth momentum dominated by demographic dividend and technological progress.Based on the analysis of facts,it is found that China's population structure is deteriorating and the total population size has begun to grow negatively in recent years,which objectively indicates that the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing.The overall total factor productivity showed a fluctuating downward trend and dropped below 1 since 2011,indicating that the growth of China's total factor productivity has been slowing down in recent years.Based on the results of correlation analysis at the same time,impulse response analysis at different lead times and at different random time points,it is shown that the gradual loss of demographic dividend and the slowdown of technological progress are all important factors leading to the evolution of China's low interest rate.This paper believes that establishing an efficient human capital cultivation system and innovation system to reverse the weakening of economic growth momentum,accelerating the structural reform of the real economy to cultivate new economic growth momentum,and strengthening the coordination and cooperation of multiple policy tools instead of blindly reducing interest rates are feasible measures to deal with the constraints of the effective interest rate lower bound and avoid falling into the dilemma of ultra-low interest rates.
low interest ratedemographic dividendtechnological progressTVP-VAR model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
