Towards a unified large market for consumer goods:Measurement and analysis of the level of consumer goods market integration based on the perspective of price spillover
Based on the total consumer price index and subdivision consumer price index from January 2016 to July 2022,this paper adopts nonlinear Granger causality test,rolling window technology,social network analysis to measure and analyze the integration level of China's consumer goods market from both spatial and structural perspectives for the first time. The research findings are as follows:First,the spillover relationship between provinces of consumer prices is universal,showing an evolutionary trend of first declining,then rising and finally stable,and forming a spatial integration linkage feature of"national consumer prices are a network". Due to the time lag in the spatial transmission ofprice information,the formation of market spatial integration has a time lag. In terms of subdivided consumer goods markets,the spatial integration level of transportation and health care markets is high,and the housing and education and culture markets are low. The price time-lag of different consumer goods markets is heterogeneous. Second,the inter-departmental spillover relationship of national consumer prices is widespread,showing an evolutionary trend of first declining,then rising and finally falling,and forming a linkage network of price integration among eight consumer departments. Due to the time lag in the horizontal transmission of price information between departments,the integration of market structure has a time lag. In addition,the level of structural integration of the eastern,central and western consumer goods markets decreases successively,and the southern consumer goods market is higher than the northern. The level of structural integration of inter-provincial consumer goods markets is different.
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