The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps from 2010 to 2022;establish a Holt-Winters Smoothing(HWS)model and predict the incidence trends of brucellosis in the later period;and provide a reference for preventive measures.Brucellosis data from 2010 to 2022 were collect-ed from the infectious disease reporting information management system of the China Disease Prevention and Control Informa-tion System.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis from 2010 to 2022.The Holt-Winters model was established in Python 3.7 software and used to predict the number of brucellosis cases in 2022-2024.A total of 6 278 cases of brucellosis were reported from 2010 to 2022.The annual reported incidence was 16.68/100 000,and showed an increasing trend(trend X2=44.874,P＜0.001).The incidence peak was primarily from April to July,accounting for 52.37％(3 288/6 278).The highest number of cases,in May,was 1 935(14.89％).The sex ratio was 2.71:1(X2=29.966,P＜0.01).The primary age group affected by the disease was 40-60 years,with 3 807 cases(60.64％),and the main occupations were farmers and herders(farmer and herder group X2=97.209,P＜0.001).The highest number of cases was 1051(16.76％)in the 8th division,and was followed by the 6th division,with 911 cases(14.53％),and the 3rd division,with 853 cases(13.60％).The Holt-Winters multiplication model pre-dicted that 675,644 and 679 cases would be reported in 2022,2023 and 2024,respectively.The R2 of the predictive model was 0.78,thus indicating a good fitting effect.In conclusion,in recent years,the number of cases of brucellosis has increased,and all di-visions of the Corps should continue to strengthen brucellosis control measures.
brucellosisXinjiang Production and Construction Corpsepidemiological characteristicsdisease prediction
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据
