Epidemic characteristics and spatial heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2021,China
This study was aimed at summarizing the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal changes of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Hubei Province,China from 2005 to 2021,to provide scientific evi-dence for HFRS prevention and control.Data on individual HFRS cases and population information in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2021 were collected from the China Disease Pre-vention and Control Information System.The temporal,spa-tial,and demographic distribution characteristics of HFRS cases are described,and statistical methods such as medians,rates,and composition ratios were used for analysis.Joinpoint re-gression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyze the temporal trends in incidence rates or composition ratios.Global autocorrelation and hotspot analysis were conducted for spatial clustering analysis.Binary logistic regression was per-formed to analyze risk factors for HFRS mortality.A total of 5 790 HFRS cases were reported from 2005 to 2021,including 117 deaths.The average annual incidence rate was 0.57 per 100 000 population,and the case fatality rate was 2.02％.The overall incidence rate of HFRS in Hubei Province showed an increasing trend(AAPC=4.05％,95％CI:1.32％-6.78％),whereas the case fatality rate showed a decreasing trend over the years(r,=-0.72,P=0.002).HFRS exhibited a bimodal pattern,with peaks in the spring/summer months(May to July)and in the autumn/winter months(November to January of the following year).The incidence rate during the autumn/winter peak was slightly higher than that in the spring/summer peak.The incidence rate in males was higher than in females(RR=2.96,95％CI:2.79-3.14).The three age groups with the highest incidence rates were 60-64 years(747 cases,1.55 per 100 000),65-69 years(515 cases,1.39 per 100 000),and 55-59 years(762 cases,1.23 per 100 000).The incidence rate(2005:0.05 per 100 000;2021:0.08 per 100 000)and proportion(2005:2.69％;2021:1.94％)of HFRS cases in individuals 14 years or younger showed no significant trend over the years(AAPC=0.14％,95％CI:-0.03％-0.31％;AAPC=-3.64％,95％CI:-8.79％-1.50％).The incidence rate(2005:0.58 per 100 000;2021:1.59 per 100 000)and proportion(2005:14.80％;2021:44.31％)in the age group of 60 years or a-bove showed an increasing trend over the years(AAPC=10.52％,95％CI:4.38％-16.66％;AAPC=175.98％,95％CI:143.20％-208.75％).HFRS cases exhibited significant spatial clustering(P＜0.05).The hotspots of HFRS in Hubei Province shifted from the northern region(Xiangyang,Suizhou,Jingmen)in 2005-2007 to the southern region(Qianjiang,Xiantao,Tianmen,Jingzhou)in 2020-2021.Older age(OR=1.02,95％CI:1.01-1.04)and the period of 2005-2008 versus 2017-2021(OR=0.98,95％CI:0.97-0.99)were associated with relatively higher risk of HFRS mortality.In recent years,the HFRS epidemic in Hubei Province has continued to escalate,and areas such as Qianjiang City and other ares in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have experienced high incidence rates.The population 60 years of age or above is gradually becoming more susceptible to the disease.Targeted measures should be implemented to curb the rising trend of HFRS.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndromespatial analysisaging populationHubei Province
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