Uncertainty Quantification in Forensic Science:Forensic Statistics Assisting Evidence Evaluation and Analysis
Uncertainty is pervasive in forensic science research,inevitable in the practice of forensic expertise,and intimately linked to the reliability of appraisal opinions.Therefore,it is imperative to use forensic statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty in forensic science so as to ensure the scientific reliability of evidence evaluation and analysis,as well as that of the results in forensic examination report.Ultimately,this will strengthen the credibility of judicial expertise.This article addresses the issue of uncertainty quantification in forensic science from the perspective of forensic statistics,categorizes the uncertainty,outlines the methods for uncertainty quantification in the procedure of evidence evaluation and analysis.Additionally,based on the concept of quantifying the likelihood ratio(LR)of the entire appraisal process,this article proposes the prerequisites and preparations for the application of the forensic statistical methods in judicial practice.
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