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2015年中国食糖市场形势分析与“十三五”展望

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2014/2015榨季是中国进入食糖减产周期的第1年,食糖大幅减产、国内产需缺口扩大、进口大幅增加.在自动许可制度、糖业企业行业自律等政策的作用下,国内食糖价格明显回升,制糖行业实现大幅减亏,农民收入在糖料收购价格下调的作用下继续下滑.“十三五”期间,糖料面积和食糖产量将在经历一个减产周期后步入上升周期,但增幅趋缓;人口规模的扩大和经济水平的提高将拉动食糖消费增长;受供需缺口影响,食糖进口规模巨大;食糖价格在国际市场供需转紧、国内政策支持、行业自律等因素的影响下将缓慢回升.
China's Sugar Market in 2014/2015 Crushing Season and Its Future Prospect
2014/2015 crushing season was the first year of China's sugar production decreasing cycle.Sugar production had fallen dramatically,the gap between sugar supply and demand gap continued to expand,and imports rose sharply.In the role of automatic licensing system,industry and self-regulation policies of sugar companies,domestic sugar prices rebounded obviously,the sugar industry achieved a sharp reduction in losses,farmers' income continued to decline in the role of the sugar price cut.During the " Eleventh Five-year Plan",the acreage of sugar and sugar production would enter a increasing period after a yield reduction period but with slow growing rate.The expansion of population size and improvement of economic level would boost sugar consumption growth.The gap between supply and demand would result in huge sugar imports.Sugar prices would slow recovery under the influence of the trend of the international market supply and demand toward a tight situation,domestic policy support,industry self-regulation and other factors.

sugarproductiondemand and supplypriceimportinternational sugar marketprospect

徐雪、马凯

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农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

食糖 生产 供需 价格 进口 国际食糖市场 展望

2016

中国食物与营养
中国农业科学院 国家食物与营养咨询委员会

中国食物与营养

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.754
ISSN:1006-9577
年,卷(期):2016.22(1)
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