目的 分析2001-2018年西藏自治区鼠疫流行病学特征,为制定鼠疫防控策略提供数据支持.方法 基于国家公共卫生科学数据中心,收集2001-2018年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市鼠疫发病率及发病数等数据,利用Joinpoint回归分析模型和地理信息系统(Geographic Information Science,GIS)分析发病趋势变化.结果 2001-2018年西藏自治区变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05).西藏自治区在2个时间段(2001-2009和2010-2018年)的平均发病率均处于较高水平,分别为0.04/10万和0.023/10万;第1时间段平均发病率Moran's I指数为0.123(Z=2.273,P＜0.05),存在空间正相关性;局部空间自相关分析结果显示,第1时间段西藏自治区呈高-高关联模式;Getis'G分析结果显示,西藏自治区在2个时间段均为热点地区.结论 2001-2018年西藏自治区多数年份鼠疫处于静息期,个别年份偶有散发病例.应注重加强当地鼠疫监测,并严格落实个性化鼠疫防控措施,制定鼠疫应急处置预案.
Epidemic trend analysis of plague in Tibet Autonomous Region,2001-2018
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of plague in Tibet Autonomous Region from 2001 to 2018,so as to provide data support for the formulation of plague prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the data-center of China Public Health Science,the data of plague incidence and cases in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2001 to 2018 were collected,and analyzed for the temporal trend of plague incidence by using the Joinpoint regression analysis model and Geographic Information Science(GIS).Results There was no significant difference in the change trend of Tibet Autonomous Region from 2001 to 2018(P＞0.05).The average incidence rate of Tibet Autonomous Region was at a high level in both time periods(2001-2009 and 2010-2018),0.04/100 000 and 0.023/100 000 respectively.During the first period,Moran's I index of average incidence rate was 0.123(Z=2.273,P＜0.05),with a positive spatial autocorrelation.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified that Tibet Autonomous Region appeared a'high-high'correlation model in the first time period.Getis'G analysis revealed that Tibet Autonomous Region was identified as a'hotspot'region in both periods.Conclusion From 2001 to 2018,plague in Tibet Autonomous Region was quiescent in most years,with occasional cases circulating in isolated years.It is recommended to pay attention to strengthening the local plague surveillance,strictly implement personalized plague prevention and control measures,and formulate plague emergency response plans.
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