APC Model Analysis of Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Colorectal Cancer in China,1990-2019
Objective To evaluate the incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide scientific evidence to reduce the disease burden of colorectal cancer.Methods We used an APC model to analyze the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease(GBD2019)database.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in China showed an increasing trend.The results of APC model analysis showed that the age effect on the risk of morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer increased with the increase of age.The cohort effect of colorectal cancer incidence was generally increasing,while the cohort effect of death risk was first increasing and then decreasing.The period effect of colorectal cancer incidence risk was generally increased,while the period effect of death risk was first decreased,then increased and then decreased.Conclusion Due to age,period and cohort effects,the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer among Chinese residents increased from 1990 to 2019,and the risk of colorectal cancer increased fastest in the 60～70 age group.This suggests that it is necessary to strengthen health education related to colorectal cancer,especially health intervention for middle-aged and elderly groups,so as to prevent the occurrence of colorectal cancer and reduce the burden of the disease on individuals,families and society.
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