Comparison of Different Time Series Models in the Prediction of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Weifang
Objective To compare the effects of SARIMA,LSTM and EDM in predicting the incidence of HFRS in Weifang under different circumstances,and explore the best prediction model.Methods The monthly incidence of HFRS in Weifang from January 2011 to December 2017 was selected to construct the SARIMA model,univariate LSTM model,univariate EDM model,and SARIMAX model,multivariate LSTM model,and multivariate EDM model including meteorological factors.The monthly incidence from January 2018 to December 2018 was predicted,and the prediction effects of each model were compared.Results The MAPE of SARIMA model,univariate LSTM model,multivariate LSTM model,univariate EDM model,multivariate EDM model were 42.17%,48.40%,16.19%,55.00%,51.79%,respectively.Conclusion The multivariate LSTM model including meteorological factors had a good prediction effect on the incidence of HFRS in Weifang,and the prediction results could provide reference for the prevention and control of HFRS.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndromeMeteorological factorsSARIMALSTMEDM
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
