The Total and Added Effects of Heatwaves on Years of Life Lost in Ningbo City
Objective To evaluate the total and added effects of heatwaves on years of life lost(YLL)in Ningbo city.Methods We obtained data of mortality,population,meteorological and air quality from 2013 to 2019 in Ningbo city,and calculated the daily YLL rate.We defined 15 types of heatwaves by combining percentiles of daily maximum temperature with duration.Time series analysis and distributed lag non-linear model were used to estimate the total and added effects of heatwaves on YLL rate,and stratified analyses were conducted by gender and age(＜65 years,≥65 years).Results In the study period,the daily total YLL rate was(19.74±3.14)/105,which were higher in heatwave periods than in non-heatwave periods.The total effects of heatwave increased with higher temperature and longer duration.When heatwave was defined by daily maximum temperature≥95th(37.2℃)and the duration≥2 d,the total effect of heatwave in lag 0-10d was the greatest,with an increased total YLL rate of 3.77(95%CI:2.25,5.29)/105.The results of stratified analyses showed that heatwave had a larger effect on male and≥65 years old.The added effects of heatwave on male and≥65 years old were statistically significant(P＜0.05).Conclusion Heatwave could elevate the level of YLL rate,with greater impacts on male and elderly people.The added effects of heatwave may only occur in sensitive populations such as male and elderly people.
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