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基于LGMM模型的中国老年人认知水平发展轨迹的异质性研究

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目的 基于潜变量增长混合模型(latent growth mixture model,LGMM)和中国健康与养老追踪调查(Chi-na Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey,CHARLS)3 期追踪数据,考察我国老年人认知水平的发展轨迹及影响因素.方法 资料来源于CHARLS 2013 年、2015 年、2018 年数据,共包含4662 例60 岁及以上老年人.采用MMSE量表对老年人的认知水平进行评估.利用 Mplus 工具构建适用于队列数据的LGMM模型探讨不同老年人群体的认知水平变化轨迹,考察时间恒定因素(性别、年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、吸烟、饮酒)和随时间变化因素(日常生活活动能力、睡眠时长、主观生活满意度)对老年人认知水平的影响.结果 根据相关指标可将老年人认知水平的发展趋势划分为 3 个类型,分别是C1 缓慢下降组(35.2%)、C2 快速下降组(20.6%)和C3 稳定组(44.2%);老年人的认知水平随着时间推移呈整体下降趋势,3 个组别的认知水平发展轨迹均有显著的时间效应,C2 快速下降组的认知水平随时间下降较快,C1 缓慢下降组的认知水平随时间缓慢降低,C3 稳定组的认知水平变化不明显,呈稳定态.结论 老年人认知水平的发展轨迹具有显著的群体异质性和个体差异性,存在不同类别的发展趋势.
Trajectories of Cognitive Levels in the Elderly in China based on LGMM
Objective Based on latent growth mixture model(LGMM)and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey(CHARLS)Phase 3 tracking data,to investigate the development trajectory and influencing factors of the cognitive level of the elderly.Methods The data were from the data of CHARLS in 2013,2015,and 2018,including a total of 4662 elderly people aged 60 and above as research samples.The cognitive level of the elderly was assessed using the MMSE scale.Using the Mplus tool to construct an LGMM model suitable for cohort data to explore the trajectories of cognitive level changes in different elderly groups,examining time-constant factors(gender,age,education level,marital status,smoking,drinking)and time-varying factors(daily life activity ability,sleep duration,subjective life satisfaction)on the cognitive level of the elderly.Results According to the relevant indicators,the development trend of the cognitive level of the elderly can be divided into three types,namely the C1 slow decline group(35.2%),the C2 rapid decline group(20.6%)and the C3 stable group(44.2%).The cognitive level of people showed an overall downward trend with the passage of time.The cognitive level development trajectories of the three groups had significant time effects.The cognitive level of the C2 rapid decline group declined rapidly with time.The cognitive level of and the C1 slow decline group decreased slowly over time,and the cognitive level of the C3 stable group did not change significantly and was in a steady state.Conclusion The developmental trajectory of the cognitive level of the elderly has significant group heterogeneity and individual differences,and there are different types of development trends.

Cognitive levelLatent growth mixture modelCHARLSDevelopmental trajectory

张诚、赖文文、杨善岚、卢曲琴、吴磊、刘勇

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南昌大学公共卫生学院,江西省预防医学重点实验室(330006)

南昌大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室

认知水平 潜变量增长混合模型 CHARLS 发展轨迹

国家重点研发计划子课题大学生创新创业训练项目

2020YFC20029012021CX029

2024

中国卫生统计
中国卫生信息学会 中国医科大学

中国卫生统计

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.172
ISSN:1002-3674
年,卷(期):2024.41(4)
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