Research on the Present Situation and Development Trend of Health Human Resources in Gansu Province
Objective To examine the current state of health human resources in Gansu Province and select the optimal model to predict the number of health human resources in Gansu from 2023 to 2026.Methods Using health human resource data from 2010 to 2022,predictions for 2023-2026 were made using multiple methods,including the health human resource-to-population ratio,linear regression models,ARIMA time series models,grey forecasting models,and combination forecasting models.The accuracy of each model was then compared and evaluated.Results Among the models compared,the combination forecasting model provided the best prediction results.Using this model,the predicted numbers of health human resources in Gansu Province for 2023,2024,2025,and 2026 are 268,700,281,260,294,250,and 307,710,respectively.Conclusion Applying the combination forecasting model can effectively reduce the limitations of single-model forecasts and offers higher accuracy.In addition to consider population and time-based factors,other social factors should also be taken into account when forecasting health human resources.Further research is required for deeper insights into these influences.
health human resourcestrend predictioncombination model