首页|甘肃卫生人力资源现状及发展趋势研究

甘肃卫生人力资源现状及发展趋势研究

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目的 了解甘肃省卫生人力资源现状,筛选最优模型预测2023-2026年甘肃省卫生人力资源数量.方法 根据2010-2022年卫生人力资源数,用卫生人力/人口比值法、线性回归预测模型、ARIMA时间预测模型、灰色预测模型、组合预测模型预测2023-2026年甘肃省卫生人力资源数量,并比较各模型精度.结果 组合预测模型预测效果最好.该模型预测结果为:2023-2026年甘肃省卫生人力资源数量分别为26.870万人、28.126万人、29.425万人、30.771万人.结论 应用组合模型预测可有效减少单一预测模型局限性,准确度较高.卫生人力资源预测除考虑人口和时间影响外,还应考虑其他社会因素的影响,需要进一步深入研究.
Research on the Present Situation and Development Trend of Health Human Resources in Gansu Province
Objective To examine the current state of health human resources in Gansu Province and select the optimal model to predict the number of health human resources in Gansu from 2023 to 2026.Methods Using health human resource data from 2010 to 2022,predictions for 2023-2026 were made using multiple methods,including the health human resource-to-population ratio,linear regression models,ARIMA time series models,grey forecasting models,and combination forecasting models.The accuracy of each model was then compared and evaluated.Results Among the models compared,the combination forecasting model provided the best prediction results.Using this model,the predicted numbers of health human resources in Gansu Province for 2023,2024,2025,and 2026 are 268,700,281,260,294,250,and 307,710,respectively.Conclusion Applying the combination forecasting model can effectively reduce the limitations of single-model forecasts and offers higher accuracy.In addition to consider population and time-based factors,other social factors should also be taken into account when forecasting health human resources.Further research is required for deeper insights into these influences.

health human resourcestrend predictioncombination model

徐瑞璞、杜嘉欣、钱国宏、路杰、王晓辉

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甘肃省卫生健康委员会人才服务中心,甘肃省兰州市,730000

武汉大学公共卫生学院,湖北省武汉市,430000

甘肃省卫生健康委员会统计信息中心,甘肃省兰州市,730000

兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃省兰州市,730000

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卫生人力资源 趋势预测 组合模型

甘肃省卫生健康行业科研项目

GSWSKY2020-27

2024

中国卫生信息管理杂志
卫生部统计信息中心

中国卫生信息管理杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.2
ISSN:1672-5166
年,卷(期):2024.21(5)
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