摘要
目的:估计2000-2020 年中国省级地区预期寿命差距及趋势,分析这一差距的主要社会经济影响因素.方法:基于log-quadratic模型估计预期寿命,采用主成分分析法和回归分析法解释其影响因素.结果:2000-2020 年省级地区间出生预期寿命差距明显减小,但老年人口呈扩大趋势.社会经济地位、危险因素和卫生服务因素对预期寿命差距的解释度分别为 71%、60%和 43%,三者共同的解释度为 74%.结论和建议:当前省级地区间预期寿命差距明显,差距可以通过以上三个因素解释.但健康生活方式的中介效应没有预期显著,地区之间健康差距在一定程度上还受到文化等因素影响.建议:一是对健康生活方式等进行有效干预,二是重点关注文化和卫生服务因素等的影响.
Abstract
Objective:To estimate the life expectancy gap and trends in China's provincial regions from 2000 to 2020,and to examine the socioeconomic factors contributing to the life expectancy gaps.Methods:The log-quadratic model was used to estimate life expectancy,and influencing factors were analyzed based on principal components analysis and regression analysis.Results:The findings of the study indicate a significant reduction in the gap of life expectancy at birth among China's provincial regions from 2000 to 2020.However,the gap in life expectancy for the elderly population is widening.Socioeconomic status factors,risk factors,and health service factors account for 71%,60%,and 43%of the gap in life expectancy among provinces,respectively,collectively explaining 74%.Conclusions and Suggestions:The current life expectancy gap between provincial regions in China remains substantial,determined by socioeconomic status factors,risk factors,and health service factors.However,it is worth noting that the impact of a healthy lifestyle as a mediating factor is not as significant as anticipated,suggesting that cultural and environmental factors also play a role in the regional health gap.It is recommended that,effective interventions such as healthy lifestyles should be implemented,and secondly,focus on the impact of cultural and health service factors.
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万方数据