Effect of Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity on New-onset Diabetes
Objectives:To evaluate the association between estimated pulse wave velocity(ePWV)and risk of new-onset diabetes.Methods:A total of 82 440 employees without prior diabetes who participated in the health examination from July 2006 to October 2007 were selected as the observation cohort,participants were followed-up for a mean of(13.19±3.73)years.The study population was divided into four groups according to the ePWV quartiles:group Q1(ePWV<12.35 m/s,n=20 610),group Q2(12.35 m/s≤ePWV<13.74 m/s,n=20 610),group Q3(13.74 m/s≤ePWV<15.16 m/s,n=20 611),and group Q4(ePWV≥15.16 m/s,n=20 609).ROC curve was used to analyze the predictive value of ePWV for new-onset diabetes.The incidence density of diabetes in each group was calculated.After adjustment for the traditional cardiovascular risk factors(including sex,smoking,drinking,exercise,education level,family history of cardiovascular disease,history of myocardial infarction,history of stroke,body mass index,total cholesterol,fasting blood glucose,uric acid and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein),multivariate Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between ePWV and risk of new-onset diabetes.Results:The area under the ROC curve of ePWV was 0.60 in the prediction of new-onset diabetes,and the optimal cut-offvalue was 12.78 m/s.With the increase of ePWV quartile,the incidence density of diabetes showed an increasing trend,which was 5.84/1 000 person years,12.04/1 000 person years,15.70/1 000 person years and 16.87/1 000 person years,respectively.After adjusting for the traditional cardiovascular risk factors,the risk of new onset diabetes increased by 9%(HR=1.09,95%CI:1.08-1.11,P<0.01)for each 1 m/s increase in ePWV.Subgroup analysis showed that higher ePWV was significantly associated with increased risk of new-onset diabetes regardless of presence or absence of cardiovascular risk factors,male or female,and age<51 years or age≥51 years,with the HR(95%CI)values of 1.07(1.05-1.08)and 1.21(1.08-1.36),1.07(1.06-1.09)and 1.17(1.15-1.20),1.22(1.19-1.24)and 1.06(1.04-1.07).Conclusions:ePWV has a certain predictive value for new-onset diabetes and is an independent risk factor for new-onset diabetes.
万方数据
维普
