Prediction of the developing trend of decentralized clinical trials in China based on GM(1,1)model
Objective:To analyze the future developing trend of decentralized clinical trials in China by constructing GM(1,1)gray prediction model,providing reference for the decision-making of relevant enterprises and government.Methods:SAS 9.4 was used to read data packets from clinicaltrials.gov in batch,and the keywords in the literature were collected to extract eligible data from clinical researches conducted with digital products in the last decade.The final data were classified and statistically analyzed,and the GM(1,1)gray prediction model was constructed to predict the development trend of decentralized clinical trials in next six years.Results:The model is of high accuracy and good fitting degree,and can be used for medium and long term prediction.According to the predicted results of the model,the number of drug clinical trials conducted remotely by digital products will significantly increase in next six years,but its ratio to the total number of experimental clinical research will not significantly change,while the number and proportion of clinical studies conducted only by telephone visits decrease.Conclusion:Decentralized clinical trials is predicted to remarkablely increase,but the rate of growth will be slower due to the limitations of the trials themselves and the time constraints of technological developments and product specifications.In addition,telephony remote visits may be gradually replaced by digital products which are more efficient.
decentralized clinical trialsdecentralized clinical trialsdrug clinical trialsdigital productgray prediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
