Influence of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and soluble growth stimulation expressed gene 2 on late recur-rence of atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency ablation and risk prediction model establishment
Influence of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and soluble growth stimulation expressed gene 2 on late recur-rence of atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency ablation and risk prediction model establishment
Objective To establish a risk predictive model and verify it based on neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR)and soluble growth stimulation expressed gene 2 on(sST2)in patients with late recurrence of atrial fibrillation(AF)after radiofrequency ablation(RFA).Methods AF patients(n=117)received RFA were prospectively analyzed in Central Hospital of Huanggang City from Jan.2020 to June 2022.The patients were divided into non-recurrence group(n=85)and recurrence group(n=32).The clinical materials were compared between 2 groups.The influence factors for late AF recurrence were analyzed by using binary Logistic regression analysis.The independent risk factors were introduced into R software to build a risk nomogram,and model discrimination was verified by using Bootstrap method.The degree of fitting and prediction efficiency were reviewed after drawing Calibration curve and ROC curve.Results The indexes of left atrial diameter(LAD),proportion of early recurrenceatrial fibrillation(ERAF),white blood cell count(WBC),high sensitivityC-reactive protein(hs-CRP),brain natriuretic peptide(BNP)and levels of NLR and sST2 were higher in recurrence group than those in non-recurrence group(P＜0.05).The results of binary Logistic regression analysis showed that longer LAD and higher NLR and sST2 were independent risk factors for late recurrence on AF patients after RFA(P＜0.05).The predictive model equation was established according to independent risk factors,and verified internally by using Bootstrap method.The results showed thatmodel discrimination was good,and Calibration curve showed that model fitting degree was good.The AUC of predictive model established based on NLR and sST2 was 0.879,95％CI:0.816-0.938,P＜0.05),and predictive efficacy of combination of NLR and sST2 was higher the that of single NLR or single sST2.Conclusion NLR and sST2 are risk factors for late recurrence in AF patients after RFA,and the risk predictive model established based on which has good discrimination and fitting degree,and has higher predictive value to late AF recurrenceafter RFA.
维普
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