Analysis of predictive accuracy and its influential factors of three individualized administration tools for tacrolimus after kidney transplantation
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the accuracy of three individualized drug delivery tools,i.e.JPKD,SmartDose and NextDose,in predicting tacrolimus dose and blood concentration after kidney transplantation,and analyze the influential factors of prediction accuracy.METHODS The clinical data of adult hospitalized patients treated with tacrolimus after kidney transplantation from January 2021 to June 2023 were retrospectively collected.Three individualized dosing tools,i.e.JPKD,SmartDose and NextDose,were used to predict the dose and plasma concentration of tacrolimus.The absolute prediction error(APE)and prediction error(PE)between the measured value and the predicted value,and prediction success rate were calculated(APE＜30％indicating a good forecast).Pearson assay or Spearman assay was used to analyze the correlation between the predicted dosage and actual dosage,as well as the predicted and measured blood concentration values using three software;univariate analysis was used to investigate the influential factors for prediction accuracy of JPKD,SmartDose and NextDose.RESULTS A total of 110 hospitalized patients were included in this study,and 193 tacrolimus doses and plasma concentrations were monitored.The predicted doses of JPKD,SmartDose and NextDose were(2.0±0.7),(2.7±1.9),(1.8±0.8)mg,their measured value was(1.9±0.6)mg,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the measured value were 0.841,0.450,0.247(P＜0.001);the median APEs were 6.00％,52.07％and 30.40％,and the median PEs were 5.00％,18.50％and-3.50％;the prediction success rates were 98.45％,30.05％and 49.22％.The predicted values of tacrolimus concentrations using JPKD,SmartDose,NextDose were(6.74±3.36),(6.93±5.02),9.00(5.80±12.60)ng/mL,the measured value was 8.64(7.11,9.77)ng/mL,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the measured value were 0.997(P＜0.001),-0.066(P=0.360),0.920(P＜0.001).The median APEs were 5.54％,45.91％and 35.56％,and PEs were-4.94％(median),-17.050％(median)and 36.93％(average value);the prediction success rates were 97.93％,32.64％and 37.31％.Univariate analysis showed that the dosage,blood concentration,body weight,transplantation time and others were related to the prediction accuracy(P＜0.05).CONCLUSIONS The good prediction rates of tacrolimus dose and blood concentration in kidney transplant patients using three personalized drug delivery tools,from high to low,are JPKD,NextDose,and SmartDose,suggesting that JPKD can be prioritized in clinical use.
万方数据
维普
