首页|利用地理信息系统对我国羊弓形虫流行病学数据的调查与分析

利用地理信息系统对我国羊弓形虫流行病学数据的调查与分析

To investigate the epidemiological data of Toxoplasma gondii infection in China using geographic information system

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为了解我国羊弓形虫的流行情况,本研究对1991年~2023年近30年收录的羊弓形虫流行病学文献中我国22个省区的94 891份临床羊血清样品数据,采用ArcGIS10.2软件中的点密度和核密度分析法分析羊弓形虫在不同地区采样点的分布及聚集性;采用Excel 2010软件统计不同省份、地区及7个地理分区羊弓形虫的平均阳性率(以下均简称为阳性率);采用SPSS软件对上述地区的阳性率进行卡方检验;通过ArcGIS10.2软件做羊弓形虫阳性率分级(阳性率分为6个等级)的统计分析,以分析羊弓形虫在不同地区的分布状况.点密度和核密度结果显示,除12个地区外其他地区均有羊弓形虫调查数据的报告;羊弓形虫在青海、甘肃、河南、内蒙古、云南、新疆等地呈点的聚集性分布,在青海和甘肃省呈密集性分布.统计结果显示,我国羊弓形虫平均阳性率为10.37%(8869/94891),不同省份的阳性率在3.09%~30.49%;7个地理分区羊弓形虫的阳性率为14.4%~30.49%,其中西南地区阳性率最高为30.49%(3059/12245),主要包括重庆、云南、贵州,羊弓形虫阳性率依次为45.06%(310/688)、28.63%(1830/6392)和17.79%(919/5165).西北地区的阳性率最低,为14.4%(3879/58038),主要包括陕西、甘肃、新疆、青海,羊弓形虫阳性率依次为29.82%(99/332)、17.12%(1353/7905)、6.03%(487/8071)、4.56%(1940/41730).分级统计结果显示,秦岭淮河以北的省份对羊弓形虫的流行病学调查较多,且平均阳性率为20%以下居多,大多属于1级、2级地区,但其中华北地区平均阳性率为20.78%(737/4562),为3级地区.秦岭淮河以南只有一半省份有调查数据,主要集中在西南地区,平均阳性率为30.49%(3059/12245),为4级地区;其次是华东、华中地区,阳性率分别为18.7%(422/2329)和16.32%(1584/15474),均为2级地区,但其中的重庆市可达5级.上述结果表明,我国大部分地区均存在羊弓形虫且呈地方性流行,西南、华北地区应加强对羊弓形虫流行病学的监测与防治.利用ArcGIS10.2软件分析羊弓形虫的分布与海拔等气候条件的关系;采用全域莫兰指数(Moran's I指数)、高低值聚类(General G指数)分析羊弓形虫分布地区的空间自相关性.通过ArcGIS10.2软件对弓形虫分布的冷热点分析,结果显示,海拔2 000 m以下地区的羊弓形虫阳性率均较高,为10%~30%,且低海拔、高温高湿和雨热地区羊弓形虫的阳性率均较高,提示上述地区需加强对羊弓形虫流行病学的监控与防治.弓形虫感染的空间自相关性分析结果表明我国羊弓形虫的分布地区之间存在关联性(Moran's I指数>0)和聚集性(General G指数>0),且分布点之间具有极强关联性(General G指数中的Z>0).冷热点分析显示,我国秦岭淮河两侧的湖南和安徽部分地区、贵州、河南及西北地区的青海和甘肃大部分地区均为热点地区.因此要在集中养殖区重点监测及防治羊弓形虫病,以阻止羊弓形虫的聚集性流行.本研究对羊弓形虫病的科学防控决策的制定具有重要指导意义.
In In order to understand the prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in sheep in China,this study collect 94 891 clinical serum samples'data from 22 provinces and regions in China from the epidemiological literature on T.gondii in sheep collected in the past 30 years from 1991 to 2023.The point density and kernel density analysis methods in ArcGIS10.2 software were used to analyze the distribution and aggregation of T.gondii in different regions.Excel 2010 software was used to calculate the average positive rate of T.gondii in sheep from different regions and 7 geographical divisions(hereinafter referred to as positive rate).SPSS software was used to conduct chi-square tests of the positive rate.The statistical analysis of the positive rate of T.gondii in sheep was carried out by ArcGIS10.2 software(the positive rate was divided into 6 grades)to analyze the geographical distribution of T.gondii in different regions.The results of point density and kernel density showed that except for 12 regions have no epidemiological survey data,there were reports of T.gondii infection in sheep in other regions;T.gondii was distributed in point aggregation in Qinghai,Gansu,Henan,Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Xinjiang and other places,and was densely distributed in Qinghai and Gansu Provinces.Statistical results showed that the average positive rate of T.gondii in sheep in China was 10.37%(8869/94891).The positive rate in different provinces was ranging from 3.09%to 30.49%.The positive rate of T.gondii in sheep was ranging 14.4%to 30.49%in 7 geographical divisions.Among them,the highest positive rate was 30.49%(3059/12245)in Southwest China,mainly including Chongqing,Yunnan and Guizhou,with the positive rates of T.gondii in sheep at 45.06%(310/688),28.63%(1830/6392)and 17.79%(919/5165),respectively.The lowest positive rate in Northwest China was 14.4%(3879/58038),mainly including Shaanxi,Gansu,Xinjiang and Qinghai,with the positive rates of T.gondii in sheep at 29.82%(99/332),17.12%(1353/7905),6.03%(487/8071)and 4.56%(1940/41730),respectively.The hierarchical statistical results showed that there were more epidemiological investigations of T.gondii in sheep in the provinces north of the Qinling-Huaihe River,and the average positive rate was mostly below 20%.Most of the regions belonged to grade 1 and grade 2 areas,but North China with the average positive rate at 20.78%(737/4562)was a grade 3 area.Only half of the provinces south of the Qinling Huaihe River had survey data,mainly concentrated in the southwest region with an average positive rate of 30.49%(3059/12245),which was a level 4 area;the positive rates in East China and Central China were 18.7%(42/2329)and 16.32%(1584/15474),respectively,both of which were grade 2 areas,except for Chongqing that could reach grade 5.The above results indicated that the infection of T.gondii in sheep was endemic in most areas of China,and the epidemiological monitoring and control of T.gondii should be strengthened in Southwest and North China.ArcGIS10.2 software was used to analyaze the relationship between T.gondii infection and climatic,altitude and other conditions.The Moran's I index and General G index were used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of the distribution area of T.gondii infection in sheep.The cold and hot spots were analyzed by ArcGIS10.2 software.The results showed that the positive rate of T.gondii in sheep below 2000m was relatively high,ranging from 10%-30%,and the positive rate of T.gondii in areas with low altitude,high temperature,high humidity was high,suggesting that the epidemiological monitoring and prevention of toxoplasmosis should be strengthened in the above areas.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of T.gondii infection showed that there was a correlation(Moran's I index>0)and aggregation between the distribution areas of T.gondii in China(General G index>0),and there was a strong correlation between the distribution points(Z>0 in General G index).The analysis of cold and hot spots showed that parts of Hunan and Anhui on both sides of the Qinling-Huaihe River,Guizhou,Henan and most areas of Qinghai and Gansu in Northwest China all were hot spots.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on monitoring and preventing sheep toxoplasmosis in concentrated breeding areas to prevent the aggregation of sheep toxoplasmosis.This study has important guiding significance for the prevention,scientific control and decision-making of toxoplasmosis in sheep.

geographic information system(GIS)animal epidemiologyToxoplasma gondiisheep

闫俊宇、包梦楠、刘丹、吴琼、宾晨、李凌丹、Hosein Salehian-Dehkordi、熊涛

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长江大学 动物科学技术学院,湖北 荆州 434025

长江大学 生命科学学院,湖北 荆州 434025

中国农业科学院 北方农牧业技术创新中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010000

地理信息系统(GIS) 动物流行病学 弓形虫

中国农科院北方农牧业科技创新中心项目

BFGJ2022002

2024

中国预防兽医学报
中国农业科学院哈尔滨兽医研究所

中国预防兽医学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.674
ISSN:1008-0589
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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